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The Coming Population Crash: and Our…
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The Coming Population Crash: and Our Planet's Surprising Future (alkuperäinen julkaisuvuosi 2010; vuoden 2010 painos)

Tekijä: Fred Pearce

JäseniäKirja-arvostelujaSuosituimmuussijaKeskimääräinen arvioMaininnat
1284211,970 (3.66)1
Pearce chronicles nearly 200 years of demographic issues, beginning with efforts to contain the demographic explosion, from the early environmental movement's racism and involvement in eugenics to coercive family-planning policies in China and India.
Jäsen:ILouro
Teoksen nimi:The Coming Population Crash: and Our Planet's Surprising Future
Kirjailijat:Fred Pearce
Info:Beacon Press (2010), Hardcover, 312 pages
Kokoelmat:Read & on Goodreads, Oma kirjasto, Toivelista, Parhaillaan lukemassa, Aion lukea, Luettu, ei oma
Arvio (tähdet):
Avainsanoja:to-read, Goodreads

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The Coming Population Crash and Our Planet's Surprising Future (tekijä: Fred Pearce) (2010)

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Waardeloos boek van een journalist zonder ander diploma. De nonsens die hij verkoopt zijn eigenlijk niet waard weerlegd te worden. Je kan je de vraag stellen of de man aan wishful thinking doet of hoofdzakelijk de spreekbuis is van een belangengroep.

Een paar opmerkingen. Hij zegt dat de bevolkingsgroei geen probleem meer is omdat die overal afneemt. Dat er momenteel overbevolking is en dit nefast is voor het milieu schijnt hij niet te weten. Een andere contradictie. Migranten die om economische redenen naar het Westen trekken zijn volgens hem de beter opgeleiden en welgestelden. Een aantal bladzijden verder zegt hij wel dat als die migranten in eigen land gebleven waren zij met zekerheid in armoede zouden leven. Dus waren het toch geen beter gestelden.

Het meest belachelijke is zijn bewering dat het Westen migratie nodig heeft. Japan heeft nooit gastarbeiders toegelaten. Is de Japanse economie daarom slechter af dan de rest van het Westen? Outsourcing ziet hij blijkbaar evenmin zitten. Bang voor kapitaalvlucht? Dat de lonen bij outsourcing laag zijn is een zegen voor de consumenten van het Westen. Betere werkomstandigheden moeten er maar afgedwongen worden zoals de arbeiders dit in het Westen ook hebben moeten doen. Natuurlijk is duidelijk van welke belangengroep hij hier de woordvoerder is.

Meer woorden aan dit boek besteden zou te veel eer zijn. ( )
  Rodemail | Feb 27, 2018 |
“If you are under 45, you will almost certainly live to see a world population that is declining – for the first time since the black death almost 700 years ago.” “The average citizen of the world today is under 30. Before he or she dies, the average will probably be over 50.” With these sentences in the introduction (p5), Fred Pearce brings the subject of demographics to our attention. He goes on in the book to address the subjects of population growth, population control, migration, fertility, limits of population and likely results of an aging population. All this is done in a very engaging style with a wealth of fascinating anecdotes and statistics.

All studies of demographics must begin with the immensely influential Malthus – the very first population doomster. Pearce does an excellent job of criticising Malthus’s fatalistic approach which led him to oppose the English Poor Laws and criticise charity. Malthus even opposed Edward Jenner’s smallpox vaccine on the grounds it would boost population.(p33) Malthusiansim was influential in the British refusing to send aid in response to the Irish famine. “Prime Minister, Lord Russell ... professed ‘a Malthusian fear about the long term effects of relief’.” (p28) This kind of Malthusian thinking becomes self-fulfilling when applied in such a fatalistic manner, resulting in “Europe’s worst modern peace time human catastrophe.” (p23)

Malthusian ideas gave birth to the eugenics movement and attempts at population control, including forced sterilisations and the infamous one child policy in China. More than 19 million sterilisations were carried out in India in the 1970’s when: “sterilisation became a condition of receiving everything from rickshaw licences to medical care, from irrigation water to ration cards.” (p79) Now we realise the logic behind all these ideas was flawed and some governments are starting to reverse gears and incentivise and encourage procreation.

The coming population implosion will be sharpest in Europe. “If Italy gets stuck with current fertility rates, it will loose 86% of its native population by the end of the century, and Germany will loose 83%.” (p105) “Thirty years ago 23 European countries had fertility above replacement levels; now none does.” (p117) Russia is a special case where the elderly are also dying due to alcohol abuse. The WHO has estimated that a third of all recorded deaths in Russia were from alcohol poisoning, alcohol related diseases or poor nutrition. (p126). Vladimir Putin has described Russia’s demographic crisis as: “the most acute problem facing our country today.” (p124)

Sixty years ago, Japan was a 'basket case': the “most heavily populated country there has ever been”, according to UNESCO (p229). Malthusians described it as the country that “cannot possibly feed itself”. Japan went on to become one of the five fastest growing economies in the world. How did this happen? In fact, “across East Asia, between 1965 and 1990, the working-age population grew four times faster than the ‘dependant’ population.” (p230) This happens when countries move from high to low fertility and is described as a ‘demographic window’ when they “experience a couple of decades when demographic conditions for rapid economic growth are near perfect.” (p231)

China has been experiencing this in recent years due to the impact of the one child policy, and there is an expectation that India could be next as fertility there is now falling fast. This doesn’t bode well for western economies which will have a lot more elderly dependents in a few decades time and not enough young people to replace them.

Ultimately, Fred Pearce is an optimist. He discusses the limits of population on a finite planet and concludes that population growth is not the problem, rising consumption is. But then he reasons that: “there is no inevitability about more consumption requiring more energy, or about more energy requiring more carbon emissions.” (p246) He criticises Malthusian fears that the world will not be able to feed itself. “The idea of overpopulated Africa simply is not true. The continent contains 11 of the world’s 20 least densely populated nations and only one of the 20 most densely populated. This last is Mauritius, which is also one of Africa’s richest countries.” (p257) He even suggests that the true demographic trap in much of Africa is underpopulation. (p259)

So what will happen as the population of the world ages? Retirement ages are rising as governments realise we cannot afford to let people live for decades without contributing to the economy. I was unaware that: “The idea of a retirement age was invented by Otto von Bismark in the 1880’s when he needed a starting age for paying German war pensions. It was done cynically. He chose 65 because his officials told him it was the typical age at which soldiers died. Modified to 60 for women, even though women live longer, it has stuck.” (p286) Pearce concludes that: “The older we are, the more we seem to appreciate the finer things in life, and the things that last. We may in consequence, reduce pressure on the world’s resources by consuming less, and by paying greater attention to ensuring our air is cleaner, our biodiversity richer, our soils more fertile and our climate more predictable.” (p290) He thinks an older population will, of necessity, be a wiser one. I’d like to think so too!
From Blog: http://www.henderson.com/sites/henderson/sri/PostDetail.aspx?postid=993 ( )
2 ääni tim.dieppe | Jan 5, 2011 |
If you haven't seen Italy and want to do so while it's still Italian, better not wait too long because, without large-scale immigration, continuation of the current low fertility rate would result in a population decline of 86% by 2100. Comparable prospects face much of the rest of Europe, including Russia. And Pearce reports that much of the rest of the world, including the third world, is headed in the same direction. The reasons: higher infant survival, female empowerment, and female free choice. The outlook: world population peaking at maybe 8 billion by 2050, falling to 5 billion by 2100; much migration; lots of old people. Pearce says much about many ancillary topics, and guesses enviro-economic collapse will somehow be avoided. He says nothing about a technology singularity or the transhumanist scenario.
  fpagan | May 18, 2010 |
It is common wisdom that the world has too many people and thus faces an uncertain future from resource constraints (Peak Oil, food shortages, etc..) and pollution (global warming, ozone etc). However as Fred Peace shows in this easy to read and refreshingly optimistic book, the answer to our problems may lie in the simple numbers of demography. Pearce starts with a history of population control, beginning with Malthus in the 18th century, which lead to Eugenics thinking of the early 20th century which lead to the Holocaust and then to the sterilization programs in India by the UN and 1-child policies in China - all of which have been disasters and essentially nationalistic and/or racists at the core. Along the way he shows uncomfortable connections with the environmental movement and Malthusian/eugenics thought.

As it turns out, population control has been naturally occurring on its own. In countries all over the world, birth rates are on the decline as woman choose to have 0 to 2 children, which is near or below replacement rates. The reasons are not by design, it just sort of happened, a result of increased affluence and urbanization brought on by the green revolution of the 60s, and increased access to and awareness of birth control. Given a choice, women don't want big families, they'd rather invest resources in a few healthy children and pursue their own life interests. The numbers tell the story and Pearce's book is full of page after page of amazing perspectives that totally changes how one sees the world. In short, most likely we will reach "Peak Population" by 2040, that is, the total number of humans on the planet will peak at around 8 billion and then begin to decline, rapidly. There are already some days on planet earth when more people die than are born.

Pearce has written a fascinating and optimistic book, we really need it in this time of gloomy predictions about the future. Demography very well may be the saving grace of the human race. Or I should say, women may save the day by choosing not to have big families. My only complaint is he doesn't look at the potential downsides of a declining and aging population - on market economies, tax bases, standards of living, etc.. and what conditions in the future could cause a reversal of increased birth rates, such as what happens during baby booms. Nothing is assured, but assuming the macro trends stay in place - globalization, urbanization, woman's liberation - the population problem, and conversely environmental and resource problems, may just have a good chance of resolving themselves with time, and we may look back on this period as an overpopulated transition to a more stable and gentle age.

--Review by Stephen Balbach, via CoolReading (c) 2010 cc-by-nd ( )
2 ääni Stbalbach | Mar 20, 2010 |
näyttää 4/4
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Pearce chronicles nearly 200 years of demographic issues, beginning with efforts to contain the demographic explosion, from the early environmental movement's racism and involvement in eugenics to coercive family-planning policies in China and India.

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