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The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy -…
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The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell… (alkuperäinen julkaisuvuosi 1997; vuoden 1997 painos)

– tekijä: William Strauss (Tekijä), Neil Howe (Tekijä)

JäseniäKirja-arvostelujaSuosituimmuussijaKeskimääräinen arvioMaininnat
7001124,910 (3.97)6
This astonishing book will change the way you see the world -- and your place in it. With startling originality, The Fourth Turningilluminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about a new American era that will begin just after the millennium. William Strauss and Neil Howe base this vision on a provocative new theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern- Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras--or "turnings"--that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis--the Fourth Turning--when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Strauss and Howe locate today's America as midway through an Unraveling, roughly a decade away from the next era of Crisis. In a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period, they show how generational dynamics are the key to understanding the cycles of American history. They draw vivid portraits of all the modern generations- the can-do G.I.s, the mediating Silent, the values-absorbed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the child Millennials. Placed in the context of history's long rhythms, the persona and role of each generation become clear--as does the inevitability of the coming Crisis. Whatever your stage of life,The Fourth Turningoffers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for America's next rendezvous with destiny.… (lisätietoja)
Jäsen:wishanem
Teoksen nimi:The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
Kirjailijat:William Strauss (Tekijä)
Muut tekijät:Neil Howe (Tekijä)
Info:Crown (1997), Edition: Reprint, 400 pages
Kokoelmat:Oma kirjasto
Arvio (tähdet):
Avainsanoja:to-read

Teoksen tarkat tiedot

The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (tekijä: William Strauss) (1997)

Viimeisimmät tallentajatDIWalker1960, bridgetmarkwood, MadHun, Kugoi, alo1224, iegneg
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» Katso myös 6 mainintaa

Näyttää 1-5 (yhteensä 11) (seuraava | näytä kaikki)
theory of historical cycles based on changing constellations of generational types
  ritaer | Jul 7, 2021 |
Fascinating especially in light of sept 11, 2001 ( )
  habeus | Jul 24, 2020 |
Jeepers! Scared the bejeezus out of me. This is a horror movie masquerading as a book. Written in 1997(!), coins the term millennials, predicts Trump and forecasts a third world war (but hopefully just a financial one) in the 2020s time frame. But don't worry, you have no place to hide and furthermore, you're guaranteed a front row seat to the show. Enjoy. ( )
  anandrajan | Apr 10, 2018 |
The mystery of why things happened and when they happened in American History always seemed blank in various studies and classes…Just numbers and names and little compelling detail as to the causes of events.

This book applies sociology in a new way. First read in 1998, much of its premise seemed implausible to others, but to me it made a lot of sense…The jury was still out on the future, but the events of American History explained in the context of the saeculum and its generational counterparts made for a lot of good conversations. Cultures and generational cohorts that were altered in their very beings by the course of history’s major events…The Heroes, The Silents, The Profits and the Lost…Just like Rome, repeating time and again…

Then came 911 and the new stages of a 20 year turning. How will the crisis turn out this time? The book has some thoughts…A must read book then and now…
  TheDancingGoats | Jan 8, 2015 |
In this exceptional book the authors take a life-cycle view of human affairs that is analogous to the four seasons. A complete cycle repeats and runs through four quarters ; Spring, Summer, Autumn, Winter with each season serving a purpose.

Since working together in the mid 1980's they became convinced by evidence that human societies follow a cyclical generational pattern rather than one of unbroken linear growth. The evidence is that societies grow, reach a maturity, stagnate and decline, with their particular angle being that generations can be counted from a time of major crisis with four generations (human life cycles) needed to complete the full cycle.

They show that "Ever Upwards", "Always More", "Always Better" are useful political slogans that really don´t apply to human affairs other than in a narrow technological sense. Societal awareness of its success/performance/happiness is not an arrow shooting ever upwards but rather an arrow that is shot upwards only to fall to earth and (usually) be fired again to follow a similar but different arc.

In American terms they see the present cycle as starting with a post WWII "American High" (1946-1964)(Spring), followed by a "Consciousness Revolution" (1964-1984)(Summer) and "Culture Wars" (1984-2005?)(Autumn) with a Winter on the way that should cover the approximate period of 2005- 2025. As in nature, each season has its possibilities and they identify Crisis (Winter) as a time for societal survival, demanding a genuine gathering together in unselfish common action.

Each generation interestingly defines itself in opposition to its childhood parents with "Boomer" children looking for societal order and stability rather than the splintering revolution that was forced onto them. Equally, they show each seasonality as having a dominant ethos that is almost impossible to resist, with the most interesting example probably being the capitulation of Conservatives under Reagan to "me first" individualism and personal freedom of a late stage Third Turning.

As they say, "Ideals become Ideologies" and an institutionalized revolution turns into a special interests power grab under the cover of a revolutionary smoke screen, i.e. Woodstock to Animal Farm with some revolutionaries being more equal than others. ( )
  Miro | Jan 12, 2013 |
Näyttää 1-5 (yhteensä 11) (seuraava | näytä kaikki)
ei arvosteluja | lisää arvostelu

» Lisää muita tekijöitä (1 mahdollinen)

Tekijän nimiRooliTekijän tyyppiKoskeeko teosta?Tila
William Straussensisijainen tekijäkaikki painoksetlaskettu
Howe, Neilpäätekijäkaikki painoksetvahvistettu
Sinun täytyy kirjautua sisään voidaksesi muokata Yhteistä tietoa
Katso lisäohjeita Common Knowledge -sivuilta (englanniksi).
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Englanninkielinen Wikipedia (4)

This astonishing book will change the way you see the world -- and your place in it. With startling originality, The Fourth Turningilluminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about a new American era that will begin just after the millennium. William Strauss and Neil Howe base this vision on a provocative new theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern- Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras--or "turnings"--that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis--the Fourth Turning--when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth. Strauss and Howe locate today's America as midway through an Unraveling, roughly a decade away from the next era of Crisis. In a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period, they show how generational dynamics are the key to understanding the cycles of American history. They draw vivid portraits of all the modern generations- the can-do G.I.s, the mediating Silent, the values-absorbed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the child Millennials. Placed in the context of history's long rhythms, the persona and role of each generation become clear--as does the inevitability of the coming Crisis. Whatever your stage of life,The Fourth Turningoffers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for America's next rendezvous with destiny.

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