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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st…
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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (alkuperäinen julkaisuvuosi 2009; vuoden 2009 painos)

– tekijä: George Friedman (Tekijä), William Hughes (Kertoja)

JäseniäKirja-arvostelujaSuosituimmuussijaKeskimääräinen arvioMaininnat
9623915,999 (3.37)12
Utilizing 2000-year-old geopolitical models, expert weather forecaster George Friedman reviews major historical changes and predicts what changes await humanity in the 21st Century.
Jäsen:RobertP
Teoksen nimi:The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
Kirjailijat:George Friedman (Tekijä)
Muut tekijät:William Hughes (Kertoja)
Info:Blackstone Audio (2009), Edition: Retail CD
Kokoelmat:Audio Books, Oma kirjasto
Arvio (tähdet):***
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The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (tekijä: George Friedman (Author)) (2009)

Viimeisimmät tallentajatyksityinen kirjasto, anonyth, GeoffreyLove, octal, ozbook, jeteets, pvoberstein
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Näyttää 1-5 (yhteensä 39) (seuraava | näytä kaikki)
A truly inane book about geopolitical forecasting of the next 100 years. Peter Zeihan makes every good argument in this book better, from an economic vs. military perspective. ( )
  octal | Jan 1, 2021 |
An interesting read, though as you would expect, it becomes more difficult to imagine the further out in time the author goes.

The book focuses on geopolitics and the impact of geopolitics on war strategy. The author looks back in history to frame his geopolitics, and thus misses the technological dimensions of war strategy that we see today in Russia's "meddling" in the elections of multiple countries. Geography may be destiny, but I suspect other dimensions are more important than the author cares to acknowledge, or to incorporate into his thesis.

Regardless, there is a lot to think about in this book, and many of the topics he discusses you can see playing out in the news around you. His discussion of the importance of hypersonic weaponry for example seems very timely. ( )
  stevrbee | Nov 7, 2020 |
This book (much like all economics nowadays) is heavily reliant on industrialization as the catalyst that propels us "into the future". Disregarding most environmental problems that industrialization brings about (the destruction of the home country's land base) is what this book is best at. While I understand this is what "predictions" for the future require in our hyper capitalistic world, it is nonetheless disappointing, and the author judges all nations based on their level of industrialization. The ONLY thing that makes me give this two stars, is the unfortunately (probably) accurate depiction of how the next World War will play out, and that it will be a space war (because after degrading the land base enough, humankind looks to the stars to strip other planets and celestial bodies of their natural resources). ( )
  Charles_Rayburn | Jul 11, 2020 |
It does not feel that a deep analysis has been done:
- the presence or loss of the USA's fiat currency rights are ignored
- the breakdown of nations and de-nationalization is ignored
- the change of ideas about conflict, really, are ignored (poison anyone?)
- changes of modes of intra-national relationships ignored (all countries are islands)

The proposal for the World War III in 2049 is kinda cool. ( )
1 ääni GirlMeetsTractor | Mar 22, 2020 |
Spoilers and whatnot below








A good history to start with and Friedman very much sticks to the belief that history will repeat itself with Poland as the new Germany in Europe trapped between Germany and Russia, two historic enemies. The US will treat it as it did West Germany. Turkey will rise as a Muslim power in the world. Poland is a bit of a stretch I feel. I would not have made Turkey a first choice, but Friedman backs up his argument pretty well, although he tends to forget that Turkey is very much a secular state.

Three things are needed for a nation to remain a superpower. Military, political, and economic power. The US is the only nation with all three. Japan lacks the military and political power. China lacks the military power projection. Yes they have nuclear weapons, but the are still incapable of taking Taiwan. They are a regional power and and exert their influence as needed in Korea and Vietnam. America has it all our navy controls the sea (and commerce) and our satellites monitor the entire planet. We have militarized space. Since the 1980s we have had air launched anti-satellite missiles. Not only can we see, but we can prevent others from seeing.

Friedman makes the case that we became an empire by accident, by trying to be defensive we gained much more territory. The same could be said of the Soviets after WWII. Our purchase of Alaska and the annexation of Hawaii gave us our satellite buffers to our west and the Monroe Doctrine security to the east.

Friedman makes a case for China to remain a regional power several ways. It's growth cannot continue forever. No growth does, the US started to have trouble in the 1970s as Japan and Germany recovered from WWII with new manufacturing facilities while the US never modernized. Japan stumbled through the 1990s; China's time will come. Second China is locked in on three sides. Two by geography and one by Russia. It will take time and money for China to develop a blue water navy and when and if it does, it will still remain a regional power in the Pacific Basin.

Russia will try and flex its military might more to save face than anything else. Its economy is now based on selling raw materials instead of finished goods, much like third world nations. The good think for Russia is that it has plenty of natural gas and Europe is addicted it.

A few things I have a problem with is the abundance of oil in his scenarios. With China and India's (virtually ignored in the book) growing "middle class" more and more cars are being produced, more and more oil will be needed. It will be some time before the middle of the century when China will have as many cars on the road as the US -- if there is enough oil to allow this. We are about to hit the downward slope of oil production while peaking in demand. Even if there is still oil for many years will production be able to keep up with the sky rocketing demand?

Another problem is that countries do not go to war with countries they are economically dependent on. International trade in itself is a major peacekeeper. International trade has brought about an era were countries do not produce everything they buy. We are dependent on Japan, China, Taiwan for many things we need. The European Union formed to increase trade in member nations. You are not going to war with a trading partner...you cannot afford to.

The war scenario would have been better if kept countries names out of it. Japanese secret moon base would be impossible with the present satellite surveillance.We do not wait for a press release from China to know they launched a rocket...let alone many, many trips by Japan to the dark side of the moon. I do think space will be militarized, it already is well on its way to being. It wouldn't take long to go from passive defense to active offense.

I am a bit disappointed that several countries were barely mentioned: India and Korea. The rise of Mexico is very probable and along those lines so is the rise of Brazil, Argentina and Chile. They remain isolated from world troubles and invasion. Brazil produces most if not all its energy.

It is difficult to predict the future and overall Friedman writes a good book. I do not agree with several points, but they do make you think and that's the main thing.
( )
  evil_cyclist | Mar 16, 2020 |
Näyttää 1-5 (yhteensä 39) (seuraava | näytä kaikki)
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Utilizing 2000-year-old geopolitical models, expert weather forecaster George Friedman reviews major historical changes and predicts what changes await humanity in the 21st Century.

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