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Ladataan... El cisne negro/ The Black Swan: El impacto de lo altamente improbable/ The… (vuoden 2008 painos)– tekijä: Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Tekijä)
Teoksen tarkat tiedotMusta joutsen : erittäin epätodennäköisen vaikutus (tekijä: Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
  
Top Five Books of 2014 (509) Books Read in 2016 (1,396) » 10 lisää
FIL 939 (  )  MRMP | Jan 9, 2021 |  FIL 939 ( ) MRMP | Jan 9, 2021 | Gostei muito do livro, mesmo com a sensação de ter entendido uns 70% dele. Provavelmente precisarei reler algumas vezes pra entender por completo, mas a mensagem principal, de não se guiar pelos modelos e teorias e buscar sempre o ceticismo é muito valiosa. (  ) ladyars | Jan 4, 2021 | I think this book is great because Taleb's ideas introduce me to a set of concepts I have never encountered before. This originality, more than anything else, probably makes his books worth reading. That said, I think that the text rambles quite a bit and could have been more concise. I would also have appreciated some footnotes/appendices on supporting technical details -- I guess I should look at his upcoming book "Silent Risk" for those aspects. ( ) thoughtweaver | Dec 29, 2020 | This is a complicated book. I don't often need three months to complete 450 pages but this one book could not be digested in large chunks. It has been sitting at the bed waiting for me to gather enough energy to consume a bit more. This is really a continuation of Taleb's earlier work, focusing on the economics outside the models. The main theme is that everyone in economy is ignoring the extreme outliers, pretending they will not happen and if they happen, models are slightly adjusted to just fit the new data point. The thesis is that extreme outliers matter a lot, and many will be killed (economically or literally) by them. Timely enough, in the first edition from 2007 he mentioned the debt crisis (which crashed the American markets in 2008) as one such thing, though he barely cared about it since it was so obvious, and obvious things are not black swans for him. A black swan is something you personally think can/will never happen. The book is very verbose and it's easy to be annoyed by the author's arrogance but the message is valuable so there is a reason to go ahead. The author also accuses most everyone else of arrogance which is a bit entertaining. I am sure he is making as many enemies as friends. I read the second edition which contains an extra 50-100 pages of commentary on the first edition. Pointing out common misunderstandings, events that followed and similar. That part is much easier to read and explains parts that could easily have been misunderstood in the earlier part. As in his Fooled Randomness book, Taleb doesn't mark his statements with many sources, and instead have an extensive literature list at the end. He does namedrop a lot though, but unless you are more versed in philosophy than I am, it's hard to judge his interpretations of ancient, and less ancient, philosophers. I would not recommend this book on just anyone, but it will certainly affect what I say and do. ( ) bratell | Dec 25, 2020 |
 Since the book was written prior to the current situation, many of the insights will seem prophetic. For instance, “regulators in the banking business are prone to a severe expert problem and they tend to condone reckless but (hidden) risk taking.” Some might think that the book specifically predicted the current market and economic crisis—wrong. The book is about the expectation that it could occur. Some of his presentation is incendiary in criticizing economics, finance, and many of its most honored practitioners. Because the book is viewed as being partly about Taleb himself and because of the style of the presentation, some react to the author's persona. If you are forewarned and forearmed, it is easier to focus on the ideas in the book. Because the arguments are controversial, it is understandable that he has chosen to have sharp elbows in getting to the front of the stage.  Taleb and his publishers clearly believe the success of Fooled by Randomness is going to come again. But that book had a persuasive sobriety. The same cannot be said for The Black Swan, which despite the great utility of its insights is badly structured and hurriedly written.  "The Black Swan" has appealing cheek and admirable ambition, and contains such wise observations as: “We attribute our successes to our skills, and our failures to external events outside our control.” But the book exhibits shortcomings, the first being lack of structure. Kuuluu näihin sarjoihinIncerto (2) Sisältyy tähän:Tutkimuksia:Sisältää opiskelijan oppaan
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random. No library descriptions found. |
 Google Books — Ladataan...Suosituimmat kansikuvatArvio (tähdet)Keskiarvo: (3.73)
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