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Ladataan... Population 10 BillionTekijä: Danny Dorling
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Before May 2011 the top demographics experts of the United Nations had suggested that world population would peak at 9.1 billion in 2100, and then fall to 8.5 billion people by 2150. In contrast, the 2011 revision suggested that 9.1 billion would be achieved much earlier, maybe by 2050 or before, and by 2100 there would be 10.1 billion of us. What's more, they implied that global human population might still be slightly rising in our total numbers a century from now. So what shall we do? Are there too many people on the planet? Is this the end of life as we know it? Distinguished geographer Professor Danny Dorling thinks we should not worry so much and that, whatever impending doom may be around the corner, we will deal with it when it comes. In a series of fascinating chapters he charts the rise of the human race from its origins to its end-point of population 10 billion. Thus he shows that while it took until about 1988 to reach 5 billion we reached 6 billion by 2000, 7 billion eleven years later and will reach 8 billion by 2025. By recording how we got here, Dorling is able to show us the key issues that we face in the coming decades: how we will deal with scarcity of resources; how our cities will grow and become more female; why the change that we should really prepare for is the population decline that will occur after 10 billion. Population 10 Billion is a major work by one of the world's leading geographers and will change the way you think about the future. Packed full of counter-intuitive ideas and observations, this book is a tool kit to prepare for the future and to help us ask the right questions Kirjastojen kuvailuja ei löytynyt. |
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A related issue is when Dorling refers to areas outside his own area of expertise (which is frequently, given the broader implications that population growth has), he is too often content to resort to ad hominem dismissals on the one hand, and appeals to authority to justify his own - apparently unexamined - assumptions. This is a problem, as I enjoy reading a book where someone ventures outside their speciality, and learn things that surprise them. It's a sign of a curious mind. A topic such as this is profoundly political, which is to say it is contested. Right answers are rarely to be found in such contexts, and more often it's a matter of trade-offs and discussion. There should have been more of this.
As to the evidence referred to in the book, we could do without being subjected to comments from below the line on HuffPo or the Guardian, but it was not to be. Dorling, referencing Hans Rosling, calls himself a practical possibilist, and this is a stance I think a lot of people would be in much agreement with. We may have to wait until Hans Rosling himself writes a book from this perspective. ( )