Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 13

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Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future...Ukraine 13

maaliskuu 24, 9:33 am

Nordic Nations Agree to Jointly Operate Fighter Jet Fleet of 250
Kati Pohjanpalo and Niclas Rolander | March 24, 2023

Denmark 🇩🇰 Finland 🇫🇮 Norway 🇳🇴 and Sweden 🇸🇪

maaliskuu 24, 12:02 pm

ian bremmer @ianbremmer | 11:44 AM · Mar 24, 2023:
political scientist, author, teach at columbia sipa, columnist at time, president @eurasiagroup, @gzeromedia.

moscow opposition leader (and ukraine war opponent) elvira vikhareva started feeling ill at the end of last year
she’s now reporting the results of lab tests..
that found poisonous potassium dichromate in her blood

Photo ( )

maaliskuu 25, 8:11 am

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 7:56 AM · Mar 25, 2023:

The Wagner Group is redirecting resources from Ukraine to Africa

Here are some countries to watch /1

Russia's 2,000 strong Wagner contingent has remained in place since February 2022

Russia's desire to impede Libyan oil exports to Europe, frustrations with Bashagha's critical position on Ukraine and Haftar's growing bellicosity make Libya a possible destination

Russian PMCs guard gold mines to Sudan and smuggling from gold helps fund the Ukraine War

Russia's close ties with Hemedti, Sudan-CAR border tensions, and Lavrov's insistence that the Red Sea naval base is still on the cards could lead to a stronger presence

Russia has 1,000 PMCs in Mali and has expanded military support for the junta, including helicopter shipments

A 4-fold increase in casualties and a failure to capture gold mines bode poorly for Russia, so reinforcements might be an antidote

Burkina Faso:
Ghana alleges that Russia has mining rights in southern Burkina, which the junta denies, and Russian Telegram channels praised Traore repeatedly

The profitability here is questionable, but Burkina's anti-French policies, like expelling RFI, gives Wagner an opening

Coastal West Africa:
Rusich visited Sierra Leone, while Wagner-aligned social media accounts have mused about Russia displacing France from Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire has criticised Wagner in Mali but there is clearly intent from Prigozhin's side

The Wagner Group continues to aid FACT rebels in their bid to destabilise Chad and assassinate Mahamat Deby

Regime change in Chad would be a major boost to Russia in the Sahel and CAR, as Niger is firmly in the Western camp

Central Africa:
Wagner reduced its CAR forces before Ukraine invasion, and instability/Touadera's Macron meeting bode poorly

But Cameroon, which has a security pact with Russia, Congo, and DRC, which is increasingly anti-French are possibilities (most to least likely in order)

Despite Wagner's poor counterinsurgency track record and war crimes involvement, it remains useful for autocracy promotion in Africa

This is why the decline of Wagner in Ukraine is by no means the end of Wagner globally /END

Muokkaaja: maaliskuu 26, 8:02 am

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 8:10 AM · Mar 25, 2023:
British intelligence believes that Russia has stalled its advance on Bakhmut

Russia is likely preparing for a Ukrainian counter-offensive and redirecting forces to Avdiivka and Kremina-Svatove

maaliskuu 26, 8:08 am

The West Must Give Ukraine the Weapons It Needs to Win
Wars are won or lost well behind the front lines. Allies should arm Ukrainians accordingly.
Phillips Payson O’Brien | March 25, 2023

For the past four months, people around the world have witnessed the macabre process of Russian forces making repeated assaults near the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut for only the tiniest of gains. By some counts, Russia has lost about five of its soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier lost—to say nothing of massive equipment losses. Although in theory a country can win a war by using its military forces to make forward assaults against an enemy’s forces, that’s just not a smart way to fight. Military technology long ago evolved to arm both sides in conflicts with extremely lethal weaponry, and any army that tries to approach this machinery head-on is likely to suffer major, and in some cases horrific, losses.

Far more effective is to weaken your opponent’s forces before they get to the battlefield. You can limit what military infrastructure they’re able to build, make sure what they do build is substandard, hamper their ability to train troops to operate what they build, and hinder them from deploying their resources to the battlefield. These steps are doubly effective in that they save your own forces while degrading the other side’s. Over the past two centuries, the powers that have emerged triumphant have been the ones that not only fought the enemy on the battlefield, but also targeted its production and deployment systems. {e.g., the Union targeted the waters offshore of Confederacy)...PAYWALL

maaliskuu 27, 5:01 am

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 4:40 AM · Mar 27, 2023:
Ukraine government organization

Bakhmut holds.
🎥93rd Mechanized Brigade

3:07 ( )

maaliskuu 27, 5:19 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:07 AM · Mar 27, 2023
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Latvians have donated over 1,200 cars to the Ukrainian Army since the full-scale invasion began. Each week cars are driven by volunteers to Ukraine and then go to the frontlines where they mean saved lives of our Defenders. Thank you!! : CurrentTimeTv

2:12 ( )

maaliskuu 27, 6:41 am

Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR | 4:32 PM · Mar 25, 2023:

21 Маrch
Russia & China state: “All nuclear powers must not deploy their nuclear weapons beyond their national territories & must withdraw all nuclear weapons deployed abroad.”

25 March
Putin states: Russia planning to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

maaliskuu 27, 11:13 am

A shrinking reservoir signals Ukraine and Russia are waging a dangerous water war
Geoff Brumfiel, Connie Hanzhang Jin | March 22, 20235:00 AM ET

At the massive Kakhovka Reservoir in southern Ukraine, water levels should be rapidly rising. As winter snowmelt and rain flow into the Dnipro River, the reservoir fills so it can be used later in the year by farmers in the region's hot, dry summer.

But this spring, water levels at Kakhovka remain far below normal. The cause is a Russian-controlled hydroelectric power plant at the lower end of the reservoir. Since November, sluice gates at the plant have been left open, and water levels at Kakhovka have plunged to lows not seen in decades.

The reservoir is critical to southern Ukraine. It supplies water for villages and towns in the region and irrigates around half-a-million acres of farmland that's used to grow grains and vegetables. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant also relies on it for cooling water...

In a paper out earlier this month, Gleick and his co-authors chart dozens of ways the war has impacted water throughout the country. Wastewater facilities have lost power, fouling their treatment pools, pumping stations have been bombed, cutting off towns from fresh water, and dams demolished, flooding nearby homes...

Oleksandra Shumilova et al. 2023. Impact of the Russia–Ukraine armed conflict on water resources and water infrastructure. Nature Sustainability (2 March 2023)

The armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia that began in late February 2022 has far-reaching environmental consequences, especially regarding water resources and management. Here we analysed the multifaceted impacts of the military actions on freshwater resources and water infrastructure during the first three months of the conflict. We identified the nature of the impacts, the kind of pressures imposed on the water sector and the negative consequences for the availability and quality of freshwater resources for the civilian population. Our results showed that many water infrastructures such as dams at reservoirs, water supply and treatment systems and subsurface mines have been impacted or are at risk from military actions. Continuation of the conflict will have multiple negative sustainability implications not only in Ukraine but also on a global scale, hampering achievement of clean water and sanitation, conservation and sustainable use of water resources, and energy and food security.

Muokkaaja: maaliskuu 28, 5:00 am

Such beautiful, mostly old churches, monasteries...: "Bam!" says Russia, 500X...

Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa | 4:19 AM · Mar 28, 2023:
Ukraine government official

Russian terror destroyed hundreds of churches and prayer houses in Ukraine. For 🇷🇺 everything is just a target. But the rockets and artillery of the terrorist state did not break our humanity and faith. 🇺🇦 will win, life will win!

1:23 ( )

Muokkaaja: maaliskuu 29, 3:04 pm

>8 margd: oh:

Bianna Golodryga @biannagolodryga | 8:00 AM · Mar 29, 2023:
CNN Senior Global Affairs analyst, journalist...

"Kuleba said Ukraine’s intelligence assessment was that Russia was 'completely furious with Chinese attitudes and the lack of support coming from China'.

China yet to decide on Ukraine peacemaker role, says Kyiv
Beijing wants a weak Russia but will prevent its collapse, Ukrainian} foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba claims
Ben Hall and Gideon Rachman | 29 March 2023

...Dmytro Kuleba told the Financial Times that Beijing had not yet decided whether to invest fully in brokering a negotiated end to the war or to intensify its support for Moscow, including through the supply of weapons.

“China is testing the ground, in terms of the peace process, whether the moment has come for them to play a role or not,” Kuleba said.

Beijing has still not conceded to requests from Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy for a conversation with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping despite China’s attempt to position itself as potential peacemaker. The two leaders have not spoken since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February last year.

Western capitals have expressed scepticism about China’s statement of principles for ending the war, which it issued last month. But officials in Kyiv are keen to engage with Beijing.

Kuleba said China’s foreign minister Qin Gang earlier this month assured him that China would not provide weapons to Russia. Kyiv has seen no evidence that it is already doing so...

maaliskuu 29, 1:07 pm

A New Court to Prosecute Russia’s Illegal War? (International Crisis Group)

Soon after Russia launched its unlawful, full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, international lawyers, former government officials, scholars and others began advocating for the establishment of a new tribunal to prosecute the Russian leadership for the crime of aggression. As death and destruction from Russia’s war mounts, a core group of more than 30 states is discussing the creation of such a tribunal. Proponents argue that Russia’s all-out invasion is a grave international crime and a profound breach of the international order that must not go unpunished. In this Q&A, Crisis Group examines the pros and cons of three main options that have been broached to date...

maaliskuu 29, 3:42 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:36 PM · Mar 29, 2023
Russia is losing its future - Aleksandr Auzan, dean of Economics at Moscow State University on the loss of human capital in Russia.
Then again, the less open-minded people there are, the easier it is for the Russian regime.

1:18 ( )

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 2, 12:44 pm

News is popping up on social media sites, too fresh to be confirmed yet by other news sources.

Vladlen Tatarsky, pro-Russian propagandist blogger, was murdered at a St. Petersburg meeting of journalists. He was handed a bomb hidden in a figurine. The cafe is owned by the leader of the Wagner Group.

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 3, 8:51 am

>14 2wonderY: internecine warfare turns bloody?

Moscow Court Suspends Work Of Anglo-American School Used By U.S., U.K., Canadian Embassy Families
RFE/RL's Russian Service | April 02, 2023

A Moscow court has suspended the work of the Anglo-American School (AAS) for 90 days for allegedly violating Russian educational requirements. The court said the determination was made following a prosecutor's check of the institution in late February. ... The school was founded in Moscow in 1949 by the U.S., U.K., and Canadian embassies to educate children of diplomats and staff and has about 1,200 attendees. As tensions between Moscow and Washington have soared, Russian officials have signaled they might consider shuttering the school.

huhtikuu 7, 6:20 am

Samuel Ramani (U Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 4:41 AM · Apr 7, 2023

British intelligence believes that Russia has advanced into Bakhmut town centre and seized the West Bank of the Bakhmutka River
This severely endangers Ukrainian supply routes to Bakhmut

This was achieved through three factors:
1) Improved coordination between Wagner and Defence Ministry
2) More effective artillery use
3) Reinforcements from Russian airborne forces

Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly railed against the Defence Ministry for not providing air transport assistance to Wagner forces
He even accused elements of the military of "high treason"
This coordination is a win for Prigozhin

huhtikuu 7, 7:29 am

Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections
Kremlin tightens Soviet-era travel restrictions in ‘sensitive’ areas
Max Seddon in Riga April 3 2023

...Russia’s security services are confiscating the passports of senior officials and state company executives to prevent overseas travel, as paranoia over leaks and defections spreads through President Vladimir Putin’s regime.

...The increased pressure reflects deep suspicion in the Kremlin and FSB, the KGB’s successor agency, about the loyalty of Russia’s civilian elite, many of whom privately oppose the war in Ukraine and are chafing over its impact on their lifestyles...

huhtikuu 8, 8:20 am

Is This Real Footage of Ukrainians Burning Russian-Affiliated Orthodox Church?
Pro-Kremlin social media accounts accused Ukrainians of calling for attacks on churches where Russian was spoken.
Nur Ibrahim | Apr 7, 2023

Miscaptioned: The video being shared was posted on YouTube around 10 years ago and is reportedly of a church being burned in Russia.

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 9, 8:29 am

Oh dear... Crimea? Kiev?

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 6:02 AM · Apr 9, 2023
Ukraine government organization

What it takes most armies months to learn, our army has mastered in weeks. For what?

1:09 ( )

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 6:27 AM · Apr 9, 2023:
Ukraine is strengthening defences along its border with Belarus

Ukraine is using anti-tank mines extensively to deter a potential Russian advance on Kyiv via Belarus, and says that 6,000 anti-tank mines have already been deployed on the Russian and Belarusian borders in a week

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:15 PM · Apr 8, 2023:
Zelensky condemned Russia's persecutions of Crimean Tatars at an Iftar

Zelensky also vowed to recapture Crimea from Russia, which illustrates internal disagreements over a member of his team's calls for negotiations on Crimea's status

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 4:48 PM · Apr 8, 2023:
British intelligence highlighted the failure of Russia's civilian infrastructure strikes on Ukraine

Due to Russia's reliance on newly produced missiles, smaller attacks of 25 missiles or less are likely to ensue

More evidence these strikes are mostly about appeasing war hawks

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:24 AM · Apr 9, 2023
The Russian Defence Ministry announces the creation of new military units to combat Western tanks in Ukraine
Leopards, Abrams and Challengers will be the focus

More details on Russia's newest training program from media outlet Zvesda
(In Russian)

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:18 AM · Apr 9, 2023:
France denies that it has soldiers in Ukraine

Ahead of Macron's re-election last year, Russian media pushed the narrative that there were secret NATO forces in Mariupol, which would be exposed and lead to his defeat

Russian media is claiming that Ukraine is about to replenish its army through mobilisations of Ukrainian refugees
20,000 will come from Poland and recruitment will extend to France, Britain and throughout the EU

This conspiracy, which is being promoted via Prigozhin's RIAFAN outlet, is the latest dimension of Russian disinformation on foreign mercenaries in Ukraine
(In Russian)

U.S. officials believe 'leaked' U.S. classified documents about Ukraine war strength may be real
Documents posted online detail Ukraine’s military strength, casualty figures and the burn rate for HIMARS rockets.

...Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelenskyy, said in a post on Telegram that ...

“If you have a working channel for receiving intelligence from the Pentagon, you will not destroy it just for a day of newsworthy headlines. If you have information about the level of support and military plans of the enemy, you will pretend that you do not have it...If you try to pretend you know something, then you don’t know anything. This is a bluff, dust in the eyes.”

The alleged leak comes amid widespread expectations of a Ukrainian counteroffensive as the weather warms. Said Podolyak, “As for the real counteroffensive plans, the Russian troops will certainly be the first to get acquainted with them. I would assume that will happen very soon.”

huhtikuu 9, 8:21 am

Meanwhile, Russian internal fights, Africa...

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:01 PM · Apr 8, 2023:
Yevgeny Prigozhin {"Putin's chef", leader of Wagner} has blamed internal forces for limiting the expansion of Russian influence in Africa

Prigozhin attacked a "colossal anti-Russian lobby" that works for Western interests and accused it of limiting its expansion in Africa

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:03 PM · Apr 8, 2023:
Prigozhin attacked bureaucrats from the Russian MFA and MoD for creating bureaucratic obstacles to Russia's engagement with Africa

He claims that the US and France do not have similar bureaucratic obstacles and cites the decline of Russian influence in Libya as proof

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:05 PM · Apr 8, 2023:
Prigozhin calls for Russia to use its UNSC seat to raise African issues, such as Libya, Mali and Central Africa

A reminder that the clashes between Prigozhin and Russian institutions predate the Ukraine War and extend well beyond it

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:11 PM · Apr 8, 2023:
The full post. In my book Russia in Africa, I highlight that these bureaucratic conflicts date back to the early 1990s, and are merely being refashioned due to the rise of Wagner

Кепка Пригожина
Публикуем комментарий Евгения Пригожина: «Я могу ошибаться и не знать каких-то деталей взаимоотношений с ЮАР, с Анголой и еще с какими-то странами. Но в тех странах, в которые я достаточно неплохо...

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 9, 9:56 am

>19 margd: Ukraine is using anti-tank mines extensively

One hopes Ukraine will not also be using antipersonnel landmines, which are banned. Ukraine is a signatory to the Ottawa Treaty banning them. Russian (and China and the USA) are non-signatories and continue to manufacture and deploy these barbaric weapons which cause massive civilian casualties.

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 9, 12:16 pm

No scolding for Russia which is actually planting explosives in Ukrainian fields that might have fed your continent?

FACT SHEET: Changes to U.S. Anti-Personnel Landmine Policy
White House | 21 April 2022

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 9, 1:38 pm

>22 margd:

Your post didn't mention Russia using anti-personnel landmines. Of course any state which uses them should be criticised, and I thought criticism was implied in my mention of Russia as one of the non-signatory states which still employ these barbaric weapons. Note that I didn't criticise Ukraine, only expressed a hope that they will stick to their treaty obligations.

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 10, 9:11 am

Firing Line with Margaret Hoover @FiringLineShow | 9:00 AM · Apr 9, 2023:

In his book*, former Mueller prosecutor @AWeissmann_ recounts Paul Manafort meeting with a Putin ally over a proposed deal allowing Russia to take control of part of Ukraine with #Trump's implicit approval.

"It was such a clear indication of what Vladimir Putin was trying to do."

1:53 ( )

* Where Law Ends: Inside the Mueller Investigation by Andrew Weissman

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 10, 9:28 am

Wow! Medvedev on Ukraine.

Carl Bildt @carlbildt | 1:05 PM · Apr 8, 2023:
Co-Chair European Council on Foreign Relations @ecfr . World Health Organization Special Envoy for ACT-Accelerator who @ACTAccelerator . På svenska på @cbildt .

A brutal honesty in this message from the 🇷🇺 Kremlin - 🇺🇦 should be erased from the map. A country that’s chairing the 🇺🇳 Security Council this month simply denies another country its right to exist. I think this is unique in the annals of international behavior in modern times.

Quote Tweet
TASS @tassagency_en · Apr 8
Russia state-affiliated media

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev believes that no-one in the world needs Ukraine, therefore it will cease to exist, he said in his post on social media:

Ukraine to cease to exist because it is not needed to anyone, Medvedev says
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman called the current Ukrainian state a "misconception, created by the dissolution of the Soviet Union"
TASS | 8 Apr, 07:05

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 11, 6:39 am

Ukraine war: The deadly landmines killing hundreds
James Waterhouse | 11 April 2023

Across Ukraine's vast expanse, there are thought to be 174,000 square kilometres which are contaminated by landmines.

It is an area of land larger than England, Wales and Northern Ireland combined.

...The Russians deployed landmines to both defend their positions and slow the Ukrainians. After leaving in a rush, a lethal footprint was left behind. butterfly mines, the most common in the area. They're only three to four inches wide, propeller shaped, and are scattered from a rocket...

Lethal Surprises Hidden in the Grass: Russia’s Trip Wires and Land Mines
Andrew E. Kramer (NYT)| April 10, 2023

...Mines, trip wires and booby traps are go-to defensive tools for Russia’s military, inflicting grievous wounds on infantry or stalling armored vehicles. Easy to rig, bury in dirt or cover with debris by the side of a village road, they are devilishly hard to find.

De-mining is expected to play a pivotal role in Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive this spring, as Ukraine seeks to push back Russian forces and shift the momentum in the war. Its army will be advancing into dense networks of trenches, tank traps and minefields.

Ukrainian land is covered in thousands of Russian mines, trip wires and booby traps. An area four times as large as Switzerland is unsafe because of land mines, the United Nations has estimated.

They kill or maim hundreds of civilians each month. In March, land mines killed 226 civilians and wounded 724 others. Throughout Ukraine, about 350 de-mining teams work continually.

...The World Bank has estimated clearing Ukraine of mines will cost $37 billion.

Russia has a vast arsenal of land mines, and its soldiers a rich repertoire of tricks for setting booby traps...

margd: On a personal note, one of the few WW2 stories my dad told was of his boat hitting a mine in a Belgian canal. It was cold and most of the soldiers were up front warming themselves (near the engine). My teenage father stayed at the stern of the boat, accurately figuring that he might be safest there. They did hit a mine. Dad swam to safety with his buddy in tow, but his friend was dead when pulled out of the water, his legs gone.

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 6:09 AM · Apr 11, 2023:

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov says it will take 30 years to de mine Ukraine and 5,000 specialists will be needed
This exceeds prior estimates of 10-15 years to de mine Luhansk, and underscores the need for greater international de mining assistance

margd: Ukrainian "propaganda" used to feature a bomb-sniffing Jack Russell, who was recognized by President Zelensky. Haven't seen mention of him in ages...

huhtikuu 11, 5:45 am

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 1:12 AM · Apr 11, 2023:
⚡Washington Post: Leaked US documents indicate Egypt secretly planned to supply rockets to Russia.

Egypt President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a document obtained by the WaPo.

"In the document, Sisi instructs the officials to keep the production and shipment of the rockets secret 'to avoid problems with the West,'" the Washington Post reports.

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 12, 12:11 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:36 AM · Apr 12, 2023
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future. Official enemy of Russian propaganda

Two videos of beheading Ukrainian soldiers appeared online.

On 11th April, Russian social media shared a video where a Ukrainian PoW is brutally murdered. It shows a Russian soldier cutting off the head of a Ukrainian Defender (still alive at that time) with a knife.

The video was probably filmed last year.

Another video was filmed on 8th April by Wagner PMC mercenaries - CNN reports.

They filmed beheaded bodies of two Ukrainian soldiers lying on the ground by a destroyed armored vehicle. A voice on the video says, "The APC blew up on a mine." "They killed them. Someone came up to them and cut their heads off. " It appears that the dead soldiers had their hands cut off, too.

Punishment will come.

ETA: Written description--no video, thank heaven...

It Hurts, Stop’: Russian Warmongers Celebrate Beheading Video of a Still-Alive POW
Pro-war military bloggers have gleefully spread gruesome execution videos of Ukrainian troops. But the Kremlin insists the footage might be “fake.”
Allison Quinn News Editor | Updated Apr. 12, 2023

huhtikuu 13, 7:15 am

Julia Davis (The Daily Beast) @JuliaDavisNews | 4:51 PM · Apr 12, 2023:

Meanwhile in Russia: state TV propagandists on every channel aired multiple clips of Trump's interview with Tucker Carlson. Their main takeaway: "Donald said that America is tired of fighting Russia and should surrender." Watch:

Russian state TV claims Trump told America to surrender

Trump is sniffling again. Cocaine?

‘Top of the Line!’ Trump Absolutely FAWNS Over Brutal Dictators Putin, Xi and Kim Jong-un to Tucker Carlson
Colby Hall | Apr 12th, 2023

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 14, 8:08 am

In the tragic calculus of war, Ukrainian soldiers have tied up Wagner in Bakhmut over the winter. With counter-offensive on the horizon, their job is done...?

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 5:46 AM · Apr 14, 2023:

BREAKING: British intelligence believes that Ukraine is making "orderly withdrawals" from parts of Bakhmut

Ukraine continues to hold the western districts of Bakhmut and insists that the Wagner Group's claims of 80% control are an exaggeration

Russia's artillery fire on the western parts of Bakhmut has intensified in the past 48 hours

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 5:47 AM · Apr 14, 2023:

The nature of Russia's offensive in Bakhmut is shifting
The Wagner Group are carrying out assaults on central Bakhmut, while airborne forces are securing the northern and southern parts
Prigozhin has finally gotten the air support he has pled for since early this year

Ukraine's primary problem in Bakhmut appears to be resupply
This is a serious issue, as a truce of sorts between the Wagner Group and Russian Defence Ministry in Bakhmut has increased Russia's supplies

huhtikuu 14, 7:37 am

>26 margd: Russian mines, contd.

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 6:09 AM · Apr 14, 2023:

7 million hectares of Ukrainian farmland are unusable due to the war
Russia's weaponisation of food extends well beyond its brinkmanship over the Black Sea grain export deal

huhtikuu 14, 7:44 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:07 AM · Apr 14, 2023:

The EU has a record trade deficit with China

400 billion euros or 2.3% of the EU's entire GDP

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged this to be rectified along with pressure on China to rein in Russia's international law violations in Ukraine

margd: US trade deficit with China is not much different than EU's?

huhtikuu 14, 7:58 am

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 5:53 AM · Apr 14, 2023:
BREAKING: Russia will launch a series of missile launches and torpedo tests in the Pacific region

Russia appears to be responding to a series of military developments in the Pacific region:

North Korea's ICBM test and US-South Korea exercises and China's live-fire drills in Taiwan

Nonetheless, Russia's move has {was?} officially unplanned

huhtikuu 14, 8:47 am

Confusion and Indifference but No Panic as Russia Tightens Draft Rules
Moscow Times | 14 April 2023

...could amount to backdoor martial law and facilitate a second wave of mobilization.

...While the law was passed during Russia’s annual spring draft and appears to target those required to undergo a year of compulsory military service, experts warned the changes will also give the Kremlin the tools to send more men to the frontlines in Ukraine where a Russian spring offensive has yet to achieve significant gains.

Among other provisions, the law allows the authorities to issue online call-up papers, blocks some men from traveling abroad and mandates the creation of a digital database of those eligible for military service...

...Once the bill is signed into law by Russian President Vladimir Putin, men eligible for military service will be required to show up to recruitment offices after receiving an online summons — issued via either a new digital database, the postal service or the online state portal Gosuslugi, which is used by millions of Russians for everyday tasks including paying taxes and traffic fines.

Previously, military summons had to be delivered in person — and some men managed to avoid service in the Armed Forces by simply refusing to pick up draft papers.

The law also blocks anyone eligible for military service who has received a summons from leaving the country.

Those who continue to ignore their call-up papers will face legal restrictions including a driving ban, and being disqualified from taking out loans and selling or buying real estate.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that the law was designed to make the process of receiving draft notices “modern, efficient and convenient.”

While the Russian authorities have repeatedly denied plans to launch a second wave of mobilization, the apparent failure of Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine and the prospect of a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the coming weeks has led many to suggest the Kremlin will soon be in need of more soldiers....

huhtikuu 15, 7:29 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:41 AM · Apr 15, 2023

Channel @FRANCE24 showed a report created by Luc Lacroix and Nick Rushworth about a training camp for Russian soldiers.

The video never mentioned that Russia launched a war against Ukraine. It filmed Russian soldiers talking about "protecting their history".

In several hours the video was deleted from the media's website and YouTube channel.

Thank you, France24, for being able to recognize mistakes and right wrongs.

1:33 ( )

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 15, 9:05 am

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof | 6:36 AM · Apr 15, 2023:
Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. Author of Siege of Mecca.

The people in the online spaces where Jack Teixeira spent his time and allegedly leaked highly classified documents posted violent slurs against Black, gay and trans people, Jews, Ukrainians and pretty much everyone else.

Everyone, except the Russians.

Airman, Arrested for Leaks, Chatted in Groups Fascinated by Weapons and War
Airman, Arrested for Leaks, Chatted in Groups Fascinated by Weapons and War
Jack Teixeira, charged with leaking classified documents, belonged to forums full of opinions and provocations.

John Reeves @reevesjw | 8:24 AM · Apr 15, 2023:
Author of the forthcoming "Soldier of Destiny: Slavery, Secession, and the Redemption of Ulysses S. Grant."

“The affinity for Mr. Putin, displayed by members of Airman Teixeira’s community, echoes the sympathies for Russia sometimes found in the populist strain of American conservatism {margd: Rep MTG, Tucker Carlson}, where Mr. Teixeira is now being viewed with sympathy.”

Lucca Swinson “…requested to buy combat patches of Wagner, the Russian paramilitary force notorious for extrajudicial executions, from a British YouTuber who had just returned from Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.”

Text excerpt ( )

huhtikuu 15, 9:06 am

>35 margd: "protecting their history” is a strange war motivator.

huhtikuu 16, 6:59 am

Easter Greetings from the President of Ukraine (7:15)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:37 AM · Apr 16, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

It is a Ukrainian custom to visit cemeteries around Easter and pay respects to their deceased loved ones.
This year, entrance to many cemeteries is forbidden due to mine danger, especially in former combat areas.

1:46 ( )

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 17, 9:34 am

Alexei Navalny (11.5y sentence, poisoned once, now severely ill), Kara-Murza (poisoned twice, 25y sentence)--brave people.

NEXTA @nexta_tv | 5:01 AM · Apr 17, 2023:

"#Russia will be free, tell it everyone."
Such words were uttered by Vladimir Kara-Murza after the verdict was passed.

0:21 ( )

Bill Browder (Magnitsky Act) @Billbrowder | 5:00 AM · Apr 17, 2023

BREAKING: Vladimir Kara-Murza: Russian opposition leader jailed for 25 years after treason conviction. His real crime was opposing Putin and the war in Ukraine. This is a longer sentence than the maximum for terrorism, rape, grievous bodily harm. Shocking

Vladimir Kara-Murza: Putin critic jailed for 25 years in Russia for 'treason' after criticising...
One of Vladimir Putin's biggest critics has been jailed in Russia for 25 years after being found guilty of treason.

huhtikuu 18, 6:55 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:36 AM · Apr 17, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

"There was an order to shoot everyone 15 and older. We shot about 10 of these 15, 16, 17 year olds. "

Russian project Gulagu net published a video with the confessions of two convicts, ex-commanders of Wagner PMC subdivisions - Azamat Uldarov and ex convict Aleksey Savichev.

If it weren't for Putin's and Prigozhin's complicity, these people would be imprisoned, but Russian authorities sent them to war instead, teaching them to kill other people beforehand.

3:14 ( )

"She's a little kid, 5 or 6 years old. I took a killshot. We were told to let no one out"

Russian project Gulagu net published a video with the confessions of two convicts, ex-commanders of Wagner PMC subdivisions - Azamat Uldarov and ex convict Aleksey Savichev.

They admit to killing Ukrainian children and civilians in Bakhmut and Soledar.

1:18 ( )

Michael Weiss (yahoo news) @michaeldweiss | 9:06 AM · Apr 17, 2023:

A big drop today of two ex-Wagner fighters testifying to mass killings, including of more than 20 Ukrainian children and teenagers. Azamat Uldarov and Aleksey Savichev are both former prisoners.

They say they blew up a pit with 50+ wounded Ukrainian POWs and the so-called "500s," Russian refuseniks who didn't agree to kill Ukrainians. They cleared residences in Soledar and Bakhmut by murdering everyone.

"I executed the order with this hand, I killed the children on the order," Uldarov says. "What we did when we entered Soledar and Bakhmut... We were given the command to clear and kill everyone. We went and killed all women, men, pensioners and children, including minors, five-year-olds."

Yevgeny Prigozhin personally gave orders for the shootings, Uldarov and Savichev claim.

Age-restricted video

Andrey Medvedev: How Russian mercenary says he made an icy escape to Norway
Matt Murphy | 17 January 2022

huhtikuu 18, 7:39 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:00 AM · Apr 18, 2023:

Ukraine uses dummies of Western weapons on the frontlines to confuse and economically deplete Russia + keep Western weapons safe(er).

Different kinds of dummies are actually used, with clever methods to make them look real - @Wendell23 for @EconCulture

Photo--fakes, I assume? ( )

Paywall, but great photo of an inflatable tank at website:

How Ukraine is using fake tanks and guns to confuse the Russians
Inflatables are the way forward
Apr 17th 2023

FROM THE Trojan horse to the stuffed sackcloth paratroopers known as “Ruperts” dropped to confuse the Germans on D-Day, deception in war is as old as war itself. As weapons technologies evolve, so must the cunning plans to blunt their advantage. Drones have rendered the battlefield in Ukraine highly visible; enter the dummies.

Weren't Russians doing something similar to protect missiles and drones fired at infrastructure this past winter?

huhtikuu 18, 7:54 am

Like the Brits, Swedes salute departing Ukrainian trainees:

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:43 AM · Apr 18, 2023:

Swedish military instructors see our Defenders off after completing their training.
We are enormously grateful to everyone who stands with Ukraine and helps us bring our Victory closer.

0:50 ( )

huhtikuu 19, 9:48 am

Oleksii Reznikov @oleksiireznikov | 5:59 AM · Apr 19, 2023:
Minister of Defence of Ukraine

“Patriots” for patriots

Do you know how to visualize a dream? We must tell about it to the world and give it life! This is exactly what happened with the Patriots, even before the large-scale war, even before my appointment to the most important position of my life at the most important time of my life.

This is exactly what happened during my visit to the United States in August 2021, while I was serving as the DPM on the Re-Integration of the Temporary Occupied Territories. That's when I first told our partners, "We need the Patriots." Our country's liberty and independence are under threat. And what did we hear? It's impossible! But the impossible is possible.

Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine.

Our air defenders have mastered them as fast as they could.
And our partners have kept their word. 🇺🇦🤝🇺🇲🇩🇪🇳🇱
This is the result of hard work led by our President @ZelenskyyUA

Thank you to my colleagues @SecDef Boris Pistorius @BMVg_Bundeswehr @DefensieMin, and the American, German, Dutch people.
We will win together.

📷 @BMVg_Bundeswehr
Photo Patriot surface-to-air mobile air defense system ( )

huhtikuu 20, 12:05 am

‘It was scary’: acts of resistance in Russian-occupied Kherson (Guardian)

Risky actions of Ukraine’s secretive grassroots Yellow Ribbon movement recalled in Brussels exhibition... Acts of resistance, such as painting a yellow ribbon on a fence, “show that Ukraine is still independent, it will liberate you sometime soon"...

huhtikuu 21, 7:11 am

NATO allies 'agree Ukraine will become member'
Friday 21 April 2023

All NATO allies have agreed that Ukraine will become a member, says secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

Speaking ahead of a meeting of the Ukraine defence contact group at Ramstein air base in Germany, he also told reporters that, once the war in Ukraine ends, Kyiv must have "the deterrence to prevent new attacks".

He said that the main focus is now to ensure the country prevails against Russia...

huhtikuu 22, 12:25 pm

Russia’s Great Power Ambitions in Africa
Joshua Huminski | 22 April 2023

...For as much as the West sees the “world” aligned against Moscow, the picture is far less clear with the Latin and South America, Africa, and other regions largely sitting on the sidelines of the conflict. The coalition against Russia is predominantly Western, with Latin and South America refusing to provide arms, and African countries abstaining from diplomatic condemnations...

...Is Russia a resurgent great power or a bellicose pretender? Russia combined “counterinsurgency operations, arms sales, autocratic promotion and soft power tools, such as media outreaches, educational diplomacy, debt forgiveness and humanitarian aid” and hybrid warfare tactics to reassert itself across the continent of Africa and emerge as a “virtual great power.” Yet, according to Samuel Ramani in Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender, Russia is merely “a ‘virtual great power” that “has many of the trappings of great power status but only occupies a second-tier position of influence” on the continent—one that will only get worse given Moscow’s expanded invasion of Ukraine, with which Ramani closes his analysis.

Moscow sought to elevate its position globally through an asserted effort on the continent, hoping to leverage bilateral and transactional relationships to elevate its standing. While Russia established a relatively strong posture on the continent under the Soviet Union, it was an open question as to whether these relationships would carry over into the successor governments. Yet, through the suite of tools and interests mentioned above, Russia worked to leverage existing relationships, exploit new opportunities, and position Moscow as an alternative to the West, and as a crisis-proof partner of choice across the continent. Russia was decidedly less interested in internal reform or human rights than the West, which proved attractive to some regimes...

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 23, 12:08 am

Murder, alcohol and prostitutes: Wagner convicts pardoned by Putin return to terrorise home towns (Guardian)

Violent criminals who served with the notorious Russian militia in Ukraine are terrorising the communities they return to... Many are believed to have died in Ukraine, but those who survived the six months in the group’s ranks have earned presidential pardons and are now returning to their home towns. According to the notorious Wagner head Evgeniy Prigozhin, more than 5,000 former criminals have already been freed... Their releases have stoked fears that the men will go on to commit further crimes, worries that will only grow following a string of violent crimes perpetrated by former Wagner soldiers...

Ukraine war: Russian artists back Putin or face censorship (BBC)

The war with Ukraine has split Russia's artistic community. Those who support it have enjoyed government backing, but those who oppose it have come under huge pressure to toe the line. Speaking out comes at a price in Russia. You can get killed, jailed or forced into exile, and if you are a person of culture, you can also be frozen out of key platforms and venues...

Russian army launches campaign encouraging men to join (BBC)

A wide-ranging advertising campaign appears to have been launched in Russia urging citizens to join the military... Ukrainian propagandists were quick to subvert the ad, producing an edited version with the wording changed. The characters in the video are now against killing children and beheadings, and "don't want to be held responsible for... Putin's war crimes". While the Russian version says "be a man", the Ukrainian video responds "be a person" - in other words, don't commit atrocities...

Evidence emerges of Russia’s Wagner arming militia leader battling Sudan’s army (CNN)

The Russian mercenary group Wagner has been supplying Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces with missiles to aid their fight against the country’s army, Sudanese and regional diplomatic sources have told CNN. The sources said the surface-to-air missiles have significantly buttressed RSF paramilitary fighters and their leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo as he battles for power with Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan’s military ruler and the head of its armed forces. In bordering Libya, where a Wagner-backed rogue general, Khalifa Haftar, controls swathes of land, satellite imagery supports these claims, showing an unusual uptick in activity on Wagner bases. The powerful Russian mercenary group has played a public and pivotal role in Moscow’s foreign military campaigns, namely in Ukraine, and has repeatedly been accused of committing atrocities. In Africa, it has helped to prop up Moscow’s growing influence and seizing of resources...

huhtikuu 23, 12:43 pm

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 10:53 AM · Apr 23, 2023:
Official page of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

The cost of Ukrainian bread. Sappers barely have time to demine populated areas and main communications routes after the russian occupation.

Oleksandr Kryvtsun, a farmer from the Kharkiv region village of Hrakove, had to build his own tractor to demine his fields.
2:47 ( )

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 23, 1:49 pm

Samuel Ramani {Oxford U} @SamRamani2 | 12:56 PM · Apr 23, 2023

A US assessment of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s influence operations in Africa {from leaked documents}
Table & Map ( )

huhtikuu 24, 7:19 am


Ukraine likely to face bloody Crimea fight, satellite images show
Russian forces have been digging defensive fortifications and trenches that experts say would be difficult and costly to overcome.
John Psaropoulos | 9 Apr 20239 Apr 2023

Ukraine: "Hold my beer"...

GeoConfirmed @GeoConfirmed | 4:11 AM · Apr 24, 2023:
Map and Investigations = Managed by volunteers. Data shared with @Cen4InfoRes
and @Bellingcat

"Ukrainian drone attack in #Sevastopol, #Crimea."
Note: UKR got through their defenses, as the ports are protected by anti-USV wires/nets and AA systems.
Target: 44.602521, 33.468162 ...

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:07 AM · Apr 24, 2023:
Ukraine strikes Sevastopol
From Giorgi Revishvili
0:06 ( )

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:10 AM · Apr 24, 2023:
Crimea is Ukraine banners are spreading under Russian occupation
Photo ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:17 AM · Apr 24, 2023:
So-called "governor of Sevastopol" Razvozhaev said that Sevastopol has been attacked by "surface drones".
0:04 ( )

Rob Lee @RALee85 | 10:10 PM · Apr 23, 2023:
Senior Fellow @FPRI. Previously USMC, @ColumbiaSIPA, @CentreAST. Focused on Russian defense policy.
Russian officials in occupied Crimea said there was a drone attack in Sevastopol at 3:30am. Footage shows Russian air defenses firing into the air.
0:07, 0:11 ( )

New Defenses Show Russia On Defensive In Sevastopol As Ukraine Attacks
There are few more visible signs of Russia's more defensive posture than the six layers of nets and booms across Sevastopol harbor. The enhanced defenses are primarily aimed at Ukraine's maritime drones. The April 24 2023 attack on the Crimean port shows how things are heating up.
H I Sutton 24 Apr 2023

Today’s attack on Sevastopol harbor by Ukrainian maritime drones (uncrewed surface vessels armed with explosives) will make headlines. And rightly so. Yet there is an aspect which could easily be overlooked; this time none of Ukraine’s drone’s appeared to penetrate the harbor. The attack comes as Russia undertakes a massive effort to increase the harbor’s protection against these attacks...

Infographic ( )

Alex Luck @AlexLuck9 | 3:47 AM · Apr 24, 2023:
Chinese Military. Bundeswehr/NATO. MA Pol Sci/History. Cats, dogs, motorcycles. Überbringer schlechter Nachrichten. Articles at @navalnewscom & @FPRI.

Russian posture to defend Sevastopol will only get more costly. It is already far exceeding its utility as a general tool of Russian NatSec posture, only balanced by the symbolic value of Crimea. At the same time pressure from UA attacks keeps growing...

Reality is that Russia had it easy from 2014 until 2022 justifying presence in Crimea. Their hold on assets there was not put to the test. Now, assuming Kyiv persists in challenging Moscow's claim, trying to defend Crimea could well prove to be an incredible cost sink for Russia.

huhtikuu 24, 9:24 am

Chinese ambassador sparks European outrage over suggestion former Soviet states don’t exist
Simone McCarthy | April 24, 2023

"...China’s ambassador to France Lu Shaye, who said during a television interview...“Even these ex-Soviet countries don’t have an effective status in international law because there was no international agreement to materialize their status as sovereign countries,” Lu said, after first noting that the question of Crimea “depends on how the problem is perceived” as the region was “at the beginning Russian” and then “offered to Ukraine during the Soviet era.”

...When asked about Lu’s remarks at a regular press briefing Monday, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said China respects the “sovereign state status” of former Soviet Union countries.

“After the Soviet Union dissolved, China was the one of the first countries to establish diplomatic ties with the countries concerned … China has always adhered to the principles of mutual request and equality in its development of amicable and cooperative bilateral relations,” spokesperson Mao Ning said, without directly directly addressing questions on Lu’s views...

huhtikuu 24, 9:33 am

Wagner leader says troops won't take POWs: 'Kill everyone on the battlefield'
John Bacon, Jorge L. Ortiz | 23 April 2023

Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said Sunday he is instructing his mercenaries not to capture prisoners of the war, the Kyiv Independent reported, citing a translation from video Prigohzin posted on social media.

Prigozhin made the comment in response to what Russian officials have described as an "intercepted conversation" posted to an unofficial Wagner-affiliated social media account. The post claims the conversation was between two Ukrainian soldiers deciding to shoot a prisoner of war.

“We will kill everyone on the battlefield," Prigozhin said Sunday in the audio recording. "Take no more prisoners of the war!”

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 24, 6:19 pm

(not alien) Marv 🇺🇸🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈 @marlowc2324 | 1:07 PM · Apr 24, 2023:
token gay fella of #NAFO. {The North Atlantic Fellas Organization is an Internet meme and social media movement dedicated to countering Russian propaganda and disinformation about the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. It has been categorised as a form of information warfare. Wikipedia}

Ecuador just absolutely obliterated Russia at the UNSC. It was so bad that Lavrov walked out 🔥🤌
Thank you Ecuador, for your principled stance & your defense of international law by calling out Russia for what it is. You are showing true leadership 👏🏼

5:04 ( )

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty @RFERL | 2:08 PM · Apr 24, 2023
Prior to Lavrov's remarks, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, sitting next to the Russian foreign minister, told the meeting that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine was "causing massive suffering and devastation to the country and its people."

At Security Council, Lavrov Faces Blistering Condemnation From West, UN Chief
Moscow has come under blistering attack at the United Nations over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the world was at "a dangerous threshold."
RFE/RL | April 24, 2023

...As Lavrov, who assumed the rotating presidency of the 15-member Security Council, led a meeting on "effective multilateralism," the UN chief, along with the U.S., U.K., French, and Japanese ambassadors, subjected him to harsh condemnation over his country's aggression against Ukraine, accusing Moscow of atrocities and of "trampling" the UN Charter.

...Prior to Lavrov's remarks, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, sitting next to the Russian foreign minister, told the meeting that Moscow's invasion of Ukraine was "causing massive suffering and devastation to the country and its people."

"Tensions between major powers are at historic highs. So are the risks of conflict through misadventure or miscalculation," Guterres said.

Guterres also urged the continuation of UN-brokered grain-export deal with Ukraine that Russia has threatened to scupper because of what it calls Western "obstacles" to the export of Russian food and fertilizers.

He said that "cooperation is essential to creating greater security and prosperity for all."

Later, a UN spokesperson said Guterres handed Lavrov a letter for Russian President Vladimir Putin proposing ways to improve the grain deal. Letters were also sent to leaders in Turkey, which helped broker the deal, and in Ukraine...

huhtikuu 25, 5:50 am

Janis Kluge @jakluge | 12:25 PM · Apr 18, 2023
Russia & Economics. Senior Associate, German Institute for International and Security Affairs @SWPBerlin

I summarized a few observations on the current state of #Russia's federal #budget for @RiddleRussia .
While the short-term outlook is not as bad as January/February data suggests, the level of spending is unsustainable in the longer run.

Reading Russia’s war budget
Janis Kluge combs through the latest Russian finance ministry statistics to assess the true extent of Russia’s budgetary woes
Janis Kluge | 18 April 2023

Graph Ru defense & secret (mostly military) spending during Ua war ( )

The y-axis is bn RUB - makes more sense with the first part of the two-part chart.
Pie chart Russian spending thru March 2023 ( )

huhtikuu 25, 6:36 am

Janis Kluge @jakluge | 8:15 AM · Oct 26, 2022:

Are #sanctions on #Russia working?
In the latest @EU_ISS {The EU Institute for Security Studies} Brief, @DrClaraPortela and I look at sanctions packages, declared goals and the impact so far. In short:
Economic impact ▶️ "Yes, but..."
Political impact ▶️ "No, but..."

Slow-acting tools - Evaluating EU sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine
Clara Portela, Janis Kluge | 19 October 2022
Table of contents
1 Introduction
2 EU sanctions regimes against Russia
3 Mechanisms of sanctions operation
4 Goals of EU sanctions on Russia
Sanctions will permanently impair Russia’s economic and technological potential.
5 Impacts on the Russian economy
6 Impacts on Russia's budget
7 Impact on population and elites
8 A delayed impact - but prolonged and severe
9 References

Text intro & summary ( )
Text summary, larger font ( )

huhtikuu 26, 7:22 am

Gazprom was not among sanctioned companies, but diverting gas to China over EU?
Apparently formed private military co. to fight in Ukraine.

Bill Browder @Billbrowder | 6:24 AM · Apr 26, 2023
CEO Hermitage Capital, Head of Global Magnitsky Justice campaign...

This is crazy. The Russian gas company Gazprom has now formed a private military company to fight in Ukraine (ala Wagner). Seems that Putin is grasping at straws to get able bodied men.

Quote Tweet
✙ Albina Fella ✙ 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇸🇨🇦🇦🇺 @albafella1 | Last edited 4:36 PM · Apr 25, 2023
I publish very interesting videos from telegram. Latest news about #RussiaUkraineWar. I speak 🇺🇦 and Orc languages. So the translation will be 100%. #NAFO

“My colleagues left me wounded on the field. I crawled through the woods for four days and crawled out to the Ukrainian positions,’’ — the first captured russian from the "Redut" PMC, who managed to get captured.

"Redut" is a private military company of Gazprom, formed quite recently.

He says: “I am Tkachenko Alexey Ivanovich. Born in 1975. From Orenburg. I worked as a security guard at Gazprom, now I am a contract soldier for PMC Redut. Got there from Gazprom. We were trained in Tambov. Gazprom created divisions ‘Torch’, ‘Flow’ and ‘Flame’. Two divisions: Torch and Flame were transferred to the Ministry of Defense. "Flame" was transferred to the Redut.
My last battle: I was in position, mortar shelling began, I was wounded and I asked for evacuation. At 7 pm I was evacuated. I was carried by two, while they were carrying me, they left me on the field and told me that "we'll reconnoiter the situation and come back", they left, but never came back for me, I was left alone. Wounded, I crawled through the forest for 4 days and crawled out to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.’’
2:20 ( )

The first captured russian from the "Redut" PMC, who managed to get captured in #Bakhmut.
He says:

“I have a shrapnel wound to my eye. I am also wounded in both arms (he shows), here and in the hand, and two fragments here (shows the hand), in the other hand too (shrapnel), in the leg: thigh and lower leg. The AFU bandaged me and gave me first aid.
What happened to my colleagues who were with me on the position, I don’t know. I want to tell my colleagues at Gazprom: don’t go to Ukraine, stay at home.
I met other Wagner fighters from the 20th Assault Squad. The Wagnerites were awakened at night and told to leave. Where they went I don't know. And we took their positions in the forest belt near the road north of Bakhmut”
2:20 ( )

huhtikuu 26, 7:50 am

Western price caps cut into Russian oil revenue
Study finds three quarters of sales drop can be linked to G7 and EU restrictions
Anastasia Stognei | 26 April 2023

...researchers attributed about 75 per cent of the {1/3} fall to lower sales volume and larger price discounts for Russian crude — both factors that were directly related to western restrictions. The remaining 25 per cent of the fall was linked to lower global prices.

The findings offer evidence that sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sales are having some effect in limiting Moscow’s ability to refill its war chest while continuing to allow its oil to flow in order not to disrupt global markets...

huhtikuu 26, 8:30 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en| 6:46 AM · Apr 26, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

The end of Rosatom might become the end of Russia.

Russian state enterprise Rosatom is a leader of the global nuclear industry.

It has a lot of leverage on the market, and any sanctions against this corporation are a very sensitive issue for the global energy industry.

Aggressor country makes use of it, openly engages in nuclear terrorism and blackmails the world.

The largest financial influx to finance the war against Ukraine and the civilized world lie in the nuclear industry.

Great Britain, USA, Canada, Japan and France have formed an alliance aimed at cancelling Rosatom's monopoly and pushing Russia out of the global market.

I'm sure this is the beginning of Rosatom's end!

Few realize this, but the mere existence of Rosatom is one of the safeguards against Russia's collapse.

West scrambles as Putin reveals his energy war trump card (Paywall)
Kremlin has spread its tentacles through the US and Europe – and countries are struggling to fight back
Matt Oliver | 24 April 2023

The West hasn’t gone after Russia’s nuclear energy. Here’s why
Analysis by Clare Sebastian, CNN | March 7, 2023

...Experts say Rosatom remains protected by the vital role it plays in global nuclear power, and the fact it can’t easily be replaced.

...To start with, Rosatom is a key exporter of nuclear fuel. In 2021, the United States relied on the Russian nuclear monopoly for 14% of the uranium that powered its nuclear reactors. European utilities bought almost a fifth of their nuclear fuel from Rosatom. According to Dorfman, the European Union has made little progress since weaning itself off Russia’s nuclear industry.

Rosatom also provides enrichment services, accounting for 28% of what the United States required in 2021.

It has built numerous nuclear plants around the world and in some cases financed their construction. At the end of 2021, almost one in five of the world’s nuclear power plants were in Russia or Russian-built, and Rosatom is building 15 more outside of Russia, according to Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

Kacper Szulecki, a research professor at the Norwegian Institute of International affairs, says the cost of building a nuclear power plant is so high that it can only be financed by governments, and in some cases even they can’t afford it. In those cases, Rosatom has often stepped in, offering credit lines guaranteed by the Russian government and in some cases long-term contracts to provide fuel for or even run the plant...

huhtikuu 26, 8:53 am

DW News @dwnews | 7:49 AM · Apr 26, 2023:
Media & News Company. Germany

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed he held a phone call with China's President Xi Jinping — the first since Russia invaded his country. He described the call as "long and meaningful."

More to follow on

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 7:43 AM · Apr 26, 2023:
BREAKING: China will send its Special Representative on Eurasian Affairs to Ukraine to discuss peace

The Chinese Foreign Ministry will send this representative elsewhere in the region to advance its peace plan

China's emphasis on dialogue and neutrality firmly aligns with its past rhetoric on the Ukraine War

huhtikuu 26, 8:57 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:38 AM · Apr 26, 2023:

Alexei Navalny is being investigated on terrorism charges
This could lead to a 30 year prison sentence under Russian law

A trial has begun for former Yekaterinburg Mayor Yevgeny Roizman for discrediting the Russian army

Between the Roizman trial and Navalny terrorism investigation, it has been a terrible day for freedom in Russia

huhtikuu 26, 9:08 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:36 AM · Apr 26, 2023:

BREAKING: Spain says it welcomes Brazil's Ukraine War mediation push

This follows a meeting between Lula and Pedro Sanchez

Lula is trying to create a Brazil-led bloc of neutral countries to facilitate peace between Russia and Ukraine

Brazil’s Lula pitches ‘peace coalition’ for Ukraine, but he treads a thin line
Analysis by Julia Jones, CNN | April 24, 2023

... Lula’s proposal is to create “a G20 for peace” – a group of countries strong enough to be respected at the negotiating table, but that are still considered by some as neutral in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Indonesia, India, and China would play a crucial role in his vision, but Latin American countries are also invited to join the apparent initiative.

When he launched his political comeback in 2022, Lula told Time magazine that he thought both Russia and Ukraine were responsible for the conflict. Lula condemned Russia’s decision to invade its neighbor, but controversially claimed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could have done more to avoid the conflict. Once in office, he insisted that Brazil would not take a side.

The United States, France, and Germany have heard Lula’s pitch to create a team of peacemakers. Lula has also broached the idea with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, but left Beijing earlier this month without any formal commitment.

...One controversial idea that he has floated for a possible resolution would see Ukraine cede Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 – a concession that Kyiv has ruled out and which the White House has described as “simply misguided.”

...while still in Beijing last week, ...Lula told reporters the US should stop “encouraging” the war “and start talking about peace” – a comment that drew praise from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and anger from Washington...US National Security spokesman John Kirby...It is “deeply problematic how Brazil has substantively and rhetorically approached this issue by suggesting that the United States and Europe are somehow not interested in peace, or that we share responsibility for the war,” Kirby said. “Quite frankly, in this case, Brazil was parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda without at all looking at the facts.”

...Lula later seemed to soften his tone...

huhtikuu 27, 2:42 pm

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:51 AM · Apr 27, 2023:

BREAKING: NATO confirms that Ukraine has received 1,550 armoured vehicles and 230 tanks ahead of its counter-offensive

Stoltenberg says that Ukraine has received almost all that NATO countries pledged, which equals 9 new brigades

Add in the Czech Republic and Poland's MiG-29 shipments and Ukraine has a substantial weapons arsenal for a counter-offensive

huhtikuu 27, 3:33 pm

Samuel Ramani (Oxford U) @SamRamani2 | 7:53 AM · Apr 27, 2023:

BREAKING: NATO announces a "multi-year program" of support for Ukraine will be announced in July

This will be the key agenda item on the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania

It follows new leaked reports, which suggest that Russia has the financial capacity to carry on the Ukraine War for at least a year even with intense Western sanctions

Muokkaaja: huhtikuu 29, 5:38 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:10 AM · Apr 29, 2023:

Another video of a burning oil depot in Sevastopol, attacked by a drone this morning.
No one was injured, there are no civilian objects near the fire - Sevastopol "governor".

0:10 ( )

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 5:16 PM · Apr 29, 2023:
Crimea bridge traffic jams after Ukraine struck Sevastopol

From Iuliia Mendel
0:23 ( )

toukokuu 1, 4:41 am

...Pope hints at secret Vatican peace 'mission'
30 April 2023 / 1 May 2023

Pope Francis said the Vatican is willing to help facilitate the return of Ukrainian children who were taken to Russia during the war.

He also said the Catholic Church was involved in a mission to secure peace in Ukraine. "I'm available to do anything...There's a mission that's not public that's underway; when it's public I'll talk about it"...Francis said though that he was willing to do "all that is humanly possible" to reunite families...

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 4, 6:49 am

Possible motive for Ukraine: bring reality of war (not "special military operation") to Russians? embarrass Ru authorities?

Possible motive for Russia: create atmosphere for mobilization? pretext for more attacks on UA? undercut Zelensky visit to Criminal Court? I though maybe to set up assassination of Zelensky, but given track record, I doubt they feel need for excuses...

Ukraine war live updates: Russia says it will respond to Kremlin drone ‘attack’; Ukraine says drone incident was staged
Holly Ellyatt | May 4 2023

Photo: A still image taken from video shows a flying object approaching the dome of the Kremlin Senate building during the alleged Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow, Russia...

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said Wednesday evening that “Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization.”

Ukraine denied any involvement in the incident that purportedly involved two drones, saying it more likely signaled that Russia was planning a large-scale terrorist attack against Ukraine in the coming days...


Did Ukraine Attack the Kremlin in Russia With Drone Strikes?
Videos on social media purportedly showed the Kremlin being attacked and smoke emerging from behind the building.
Nur Ibrahim | May 3, 2023

Claim: On May 3, 2023, Ukraine attacked the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, with two drone strikes.
Rating: Research In Progress...

toukokuu 6, 10:40 am

Russian railway is on the verge of collapse

The threat of a collapse in freight traffic is growing at Russian Railways due to a shortage of bearings for heavy-duty wagons, reports Railway Supply citing The so-called innovative wagons, which can carry 8 tons more than conventional ones, were left without spare parts after sanctions hit Russia over the invasion of Ukraine and foreign manufacturers began to leave the Russian market...

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 7, 9:56 am

Bakhmut wasn't much of a prize, militarily? Now smashd.
Strategic value of tying up and decimating Wagner comes to end w counter-offensive?
(Unless counter-offensive begins in Bakhmut?)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:46 AM · May 7, 2023:

The show is in progress.

Prigozhin announced that Wagner PMC remains to fight in Bakhmut.

"This night we received a combat order, the first one in all this time. It said the following, if you remove all the secret information: we're promised as much ammunition and weapons as we need to continue further actions, they swear that everything will be set up on the flank so the enemy doesn't cut across is, we're told that we can act as we see fit in Bakhmut, and we're given Surovikin as a person to make all decisions within PMC Wagner's combat actions about the interaction with the ministry of defense" - Prigozhin stated.

Previously he said that Wagner PMC would leave Bakhmut on 10th May.

Later Ramzan Kadyrov announced his people were ready to take positions in the city after Wagner's retreat.


After blaming Russian army for starving Wagner in Bakhmut of munitions:

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 9:22 AM · May 6, 2023:
Yevgeny Prigozhin wrote a formal request to replace the Wagner Group with Chechnya’s Kadyrovtsy in Bakhmut on May 10

Given the Kadyrovtsy’s poor track record, this is a win for Ukraine

toukokuu 8, 6:49 am

Defense of Ukraine @ DefenceU | 6:44 AM · May 8, 2023:
Official page of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine 🇺🇦

Last night, 35 of 35 russian drones were shot down!
30 of them targeted Kyiv.

On this Day of Remembrance & Victory over Nazism in WWII, today’s Nazis - ruscists - are destroying peaceful cities. The empire of which they dream will fade into obscurity. Just like its predecessors.

1:01 ( )

toukokuu 8, 7:17 am

>69 margd:

Although amidst all the hype it's worth remembering that it was not only the Nazis and now the Russians who were/are "destroying peaceful cities". Think of Dresden, Cologne, Essen, Dortmund, Hanover, Wurzburg, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Tokyo, etc, etc...

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 8, 11:59 am

Benghazi, Homs, Khartoum

>69 margd: MY first thought in reading this was "thank goodness for weapons that protect cities".

I don't think May 8 Day of Remembrance & Victory over Nazism in WWII is observed in North America? Then again, we were lucky that our cities weren't smashed in WW2, except maybe port of Pearl Harbor? Nazis actually did push into the St Lawrence River, but my understanding is that they were dropping off spies and looking for naval and merchant marine assets, England's lifeline in the early years? As a teen, my dad patrolled the shores of Nova Scotia looking for German U-boats under blackout conditions on a Harley Davidson--skidding into a pig wallow one memorable night... He was a small lad then and could barely lift the motorcycle off of himself...

toukokuu 8, 9:47 am

>71 margd:

In the UK it's known as VE (Victory in Europe) Day. It was a huge celebration at the time, but I don't think it's really celebrated much any more, especially when it falls two days after the first coronation in 70 years!

toukokuu 8, 10:08 am

>70 John5918: I was thinking about this the other day when I heard about the Russians dropping phosphorous on Bakhmut. Vonnegut writing about his experience of being taken to an underground prison in Dresden in Slaughterhouse 5. From WWII there is also Gert Ledig's Payback and Curzio Malaparte's Kaputt which I remember right has a part about the city of Hamburg after it was firebombed. From the British perspective it was payback for the destruction wrought on cities such as London or Coventry by the Luftwaffe in an earlier stage of war though again if I remember there are stories that Churchill allowed the Germans to wreak havoc on Coventry to build up the British population's anger.......and Dresden for one was reserved for almost the entirety of the war from air attack just so that it could be absolutely demolished in one go.

Hitting Hiroshima and Nagasaki with atomic bombs let the nuclear weapons demon out of it's box and it's not ever going back. That said US Military estimates for its forces for an invasion of Japan was an expected several hundred thousand casualties. If that were the case many more Japanese military and civilians would have been casualties too.....though that would have been spread across the entire island. Almost certainly there would have been an extensive bombing of cities to go with it. We were going to go after them until they surrendered. Very good chance I would not be here also in that case as my father was WWII era USMC.

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 8, 11:23 am

>73 lriley:

Thanks. Yes, it's not my intention here to play a blame game about events that happened eight decades ago, but simply to flag the one-sidedness of that comment about Russian bombing. It wasn't just Nazis who destroyed peaceful cities, and indeed they were not necessarily the worst offenders.

Having said that, the targeting of civilian populations and infrastructure is illegal, a war crime, a crime against humanity, no matter who does it nor what excuses they make for it.

Ironically the US President agreed with this stance at the start of World War II, although he soon descended into condoning criminal acts once his own country joined the conflict, as did his successor.

The ruthless bombing from the air of civilians in unfortified centres of population during the course of the hostilities which have raged in various quarters of the earth during the past few years, which has resulted in the maiming and in the death of thousands of defenceless men, women, and children, has sickened the hearts of every civilised man and woman, and has profoundly shocked the conscience of humanity.

If resort is had to this form of inhuman barbarism hundreds of thousands of innocent human beings who have no responsibility for, and who are not even remotely participating in, the hostilities which have now broken out, will lose their lives. I am therefore addressing this urgent appeal to every government which may be engaged in hostilities publicly to affirm its determination that its armed forces shall in no event, and under no circumstances, undertake the bombardment from the air of civilian populations . I request an immediate reply.

US President Franklin D. Roosevelt to “the Governments of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and His Britannic Majesty” on 1 September 1939.

As for Coventry, I've also read that Churchill allowed the raid to go ahead because to defend Coventry would have tipped off the Germans that the Allies had cracked their Enigma code. The ruins of Coventry Cathedral and the crucifix in the new cathedral made from charred wooden beams rescued from the ruins are poignant reminders of that barbaric period in modern history.

toukokuu 9, 3:11 am

Atmospheric polutants data obtained by WSJ shows that the fall in Russian industrial output because of the war is higher than the official data suggests.

Graph ( )

- Konstantin Sonin @k_sonin | 2:53 PM · May 8, 2023
Political economist, John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, @HarrisPolicy at UChicago

toukokuu 9, 3:17 am

Poland Transfers 10 Fighter Jets To Ukraine Ahead Of Expected Counteroffensive
RFE/RL's Russian Service | May 08, 2023

Poland has transferred 10 MiG-29 jet fighters to Ukraine as Kyiv prepares to launch a counteroffensive, Warsaw announced on May 8. Poland in March announced it would be sending Ukraine some of its Soviet-era fighter jets, and it transferred four early last month. Ukraine has been pleading for fighter planes as it prepares to launch another counteroffensive in the coming weeks as fighter jets are integral to a combined-arms military strategy. Poland was the first nation to announce it would give Ukraine jet fighters. Slovakia has followed suit, transferring about 13 MiG-29s...

Britain prepares to send long-range missiles to Ukraine
The U.K. is pushing the Biden administration into providing Ukraine with weapons that can reach further into Russian-held territory
Karen DeYoung | May 8, 2023

In a procurement notice posted May 2 by the British-led International Fund for Ukraine, a group of northern European countries that has set up a mechanism to send weapons to the battlefield, the United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry asked for “expressions of interest” in providing strike capabilities with a range of up to 300 kilometers, or nearly 200 miles. The notice asked for responses within three days.

No final decision has been made, according to a British official who declined to confirm the type, timing or quantity of weaponry under consideration. But the notice is a substantive step toward Britain itself supplying such munitions, and the requested specifications and capabilities closely match its air-launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles...

toukokuu 9, 3:36 am

Last night Russia attacked Ukraine with cruise missiles, launched from air and sea.
25 Kalibr and X-101/X-555 rockets were launched in two waves. Ukrainian Air Forces shot down 23 of them.

- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:45 AM · May 9, 2023
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

toukokuu 9, 7:10 am

Kevin Shakir @kevinshakir | 1:39 AM · May 8, 2023
Journalist @DRNyheder - Danish Broadcasting Corporation.

1/9 🧵 10(!) anti-Ukrainian demonstrations in European cities linked to a Russian intelligence service.
We have just published the second piece of our investigation on how leaked Russian documents reveal fake protests, shared by men in St. Petersburg. 👉
Map & photos {}

2/9 Content from the fake demonstrations have been spread on social platforms Dec. 2022 - April 2023.
The playbook: Send three persons to a legit demonstration with similar posters, film them in front of a crowd and share to make it look like Europeans are against Ukraine.
Photos { }

3/9 We can reveal how a “nazi Ukrainian supporter” at a protest in March has posed as an “anti-Ukrainian European” at another fake protest in February.
Sunday we published how Russian intelligence documents revealed fake anti Turkish protests in Paris.
Photos ( )
Turkish thread ( )

4/9 Another "protester" has been identified at two fake demonstrations.
01/28/23 he is in at a climate demo in Hague (left), 01/31/23 he is in Bruxelles at a union's demo (right), posing with the same message. But who are the men in St. Petersburg sharing this content online?
Photos ( )

5/9 An Algerian citizen (left) & Moroccan citizen (right) have attempted to spread content from the fake anti-Ukrainian demonstrations to hundreds of thousands of social media users.
Both men live in St. Petersburg, where they study at the university and spread Russian disinfo.
Photos ( )

6/9 Besides from spreading content of fake protesters online, the Algerian RUS-resident has offered photo jobs in several Facebook groups - prior to several demonstrations in European cities.
Here is one of the posts from 02/07/23 four days before a fake demonstration in Paris.
Photo ( )

7/9 Here is an overview of the 10 fake demonstrations.
The protests are linked to the North African men, living in St. Petersburg, whose social media profiles appear in Russian intelligence documents. Sources call the manifestations an operation initiated by an intel. service.
Map w demo dates ( )

8/9 Here are images of 4 out of 10 fake protests.
As you can see the same messages and misspellings appear. And if you look closely, 'Zelenskiy' is spelled in the same way, even though his name is spelled differently in the different countries where the protests take place.
Photos ( )

9/9 The Russian government has not responded to our request for comments.
The Algerian calls the story an “attempt of defamation”. The Moroccan claims his social profiles were hacked and denies intelligence ties.
Their disinfo profiles were deleted a few hours after we spoke.


toukokuu 9, 7:18 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:06 AM · May 9, 2023
It seems that during today's "festivities" in Moscow Putin got scared by a drum beat and looked to the other presidents for protection.
0:13 ( )

Timothy @TimothyDSnyder | 5:59 AM · May 9, 2023:
Levin Professor of History at Yale. Author of "On Tyranny," with 20 new lessons on Ukraine, "Our Malady," "Road to Unfreedom," "Black Earth," and "Bloodlands"

To recall the end of the Second World War in Europe means remembering that more Ukrainian civilians were killed than were Russians, and that more Ukrainian soldiers died fighting the Wehrmacht than Americans, British, and Frenchmen — taken together.
See numbers in #Bloodlands

toukokuu 9, 4:39 pm

How the borders have changed over time...
1:27 Map Russia & Europe, 1140-1212 ( )

- The Best @Figensport | 3:59 PM · May 9, 2023

toukokuu 13, 11:14 am

Russian is cracking? Blaming others, etc.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:50 PM · May 12, 2023:
Prigozhin invited the leaders of Russian defense ministry to Bakhmut to stop their fleeing troops. He also said that Wagner PMC was "using their ammunition to stop the fleeing servicemen of the Russian army".

(From Prigozhin's response to Viktor Sobolev, member of defense committee of the Russian parliament. Published on Prigozhin's press-service Telegram)

0:11 ( )

toukokuu 13, 11:18 am

Meanwhile in US, RFK Jr, fresh from meeting w Roger Stone, etc.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr @RobertKennedyJr | 11:03 AM · May 10, 2023
Just as they did during the Iraq War, America’s jingoistic press outlets bear a major responsibility for this unnecessary war that has ravaged Ukraine and killed some 315,000 Ukrainians. Rather than seeking to contextualize events properly for their readers, the U.S. media systematically deceived Americans about the causes and course of the war while faithfully parroting the Neocon propaganda narrative.

Alexander S. Vindman ❎ @AVindman | 4:40 PM · May 12, 2023
Wrong. It is Putin that’s responsible. Then it’s the West bre(e)ding a sense of impunity in Putin by doing too little to counter his decades of growing aggression. It’s also @realDonaldTrump / MAGA presenting an opportunity… the belief that the GOP supports Putin.

toukokuu 13, 12:01 pm

South Africa says US ambassador apologised for alleging country supplied arms to Russia (BBC)

South Africa's foreign ministry says the US ambassador has "apologised unreservedly" for claiming the country sold weapons to Russia. On Thursday Reuben Brigety alleged a Russian ship was loaded with ammunition and weapons in Cape Town last December. South Africa says it has no record of an arms sale and President Cyril Ramaphosa has ordered an inquiry. On Friday the White House national security spokesman would not be drawn on details of the allegations... Mr Brigety said he was "grateful for the opportunity to... correct any misimpressions left by my public remarks"... Meanwhile a South African cabinet minister hit out at such "megaphone diplomacy", saying South Africa could not be "bullied by the US". "It is the US which has sanctions against Russia... they must not drag us into their issues with Russia," Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, a minister in the presidency, told public broadcaster SABC... If the accusations are true, South Africa will have violated its own Arms Control Act, which commits to "not trade in conventional arms with states engaged in repression, aggression or terrorism"...

toukokuu 15, 3:46 am

Michael McFaul McFaul | 1:15 AM · May 15, 2023
{former US Ambassador to Russia}

Wow. “Prigozhin offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says “ - The Washington Post

Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says
Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to tell Ukraine where Russian troops were located if they pulled back from Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries were taking heavy losses

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 15, 6:11 am

>84 margd:

Reminds me a little of the 1983-2005 civil war in Sudan, where there would often be local arrangements not to initiate attacks on each other between isolated government garrisons and the troops of the liberation army who surrounded them. There were even occasions when the insurgents gave food to the besieged government troops in exchange for ammunition. I'm sure it's not uncommon for soldiers in any war to look for ways of avoiding being killed, regardless of the politics of their leaders.

toukokuu 16, 7:02 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 6:42 AM · May 16, 2023
I appeared on France 24 this morning

I discussed my new book "Russia in Africa: Surging Great Power or Bellicose Pretender" in the Paris studio

Russia's Growing Footprint in Africa: Perspective
Moscow targets continent with anti-west propaganda
8:10 ( )

toukokuu 18, 7:54 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:49 AM · May 18, 2023:
Congratulations to the great geopolitical strategist Putin.

China has approved Vladivostok in Russia as a cross-border transit port for domestic trade shipments in Northeast China's Jilin Province from June 1, - Chinese customs. This will boost Chinese domestic trade.
Map ( )

Russia welcomes Chinese shipping to Far East port for first time
Seth Robson | May 17, 2023

Russia has opened the home port of its Pacific naval fleet to Chinese commercial shipping, a sign of deepening ties between the two nations amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

...Vladivostok, formerly known as Haishenwai, was part of China before it was ceded to Russian Empire in 1860 under the Convention of Peking. The convention, signed at the end of the Second Opium War, also ceded Hong Kong to the United Kingdom.

Since then, northern Chinese provinces have moved goods hundreds of miles overland to Dalian and other Chinese ports in the south, according to a Tuesday report on the Think China website...

toukokuu 19, 12:46 pm

Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa | 12:03 PM · May 19, 2023:
I welcome the historic decision of the United States and @POTUS to support an international fighter jet coalition. This will greatly enhance our army in the sky. I count on discussing the practical implementation of this decision at the #G7 summit in Hiroshima.

DW News @dwnews | 12:19 PM · May 19, 2023:
JUST IN: Washington to back efforts to train Ukraine's pilots on American F-16 fighter jets, media reports.

toukokuu 20, 1:59 pm

Robbie Gramer @RobbieGramer | 1:15 PM · May 20, 2023:
National Security Reporter @ForeignPolicy

Brain drain on steroids: Russia has lost 50,000 scientists in the past 5 years, according to a senior member of the Russian Academy of Scientists

Russia Has Lost 50K Scientists in 5 Years – RAS
Moscow Times | 19 May 2023

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 20, 2:17 pm

NEXTA @nexta_tv | 1:19 PM · May 20, 2023:

Lavrov's daughter and son-in-law left Georgia under the protection of the Georgian police and state security service, reports Mtavari.

There are protests in the country against the resumption of air traffic with Russia.

DW News @dwnews | 2:07 PM · May 20, 2023:

Direct flights have resumed between Russia and Georgia — Georgian PM faces criticism at home over the move.
1:00 ( )

toukokuu 21, 4:02 am

Zelenskyy says Russia 'destroyed everything' in Bakhmut
The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut has been the site of fierce fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces for months.
DW | 5/21/2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday appeared to acknowledge the loss of the eastern city of Bakhmut to Russian forces.

When asked during the G7 summit in Hiroshima if Ukraine still controls the city, Zelenskyy replied, "I think no."

"You have to understand that there is nothing," Zelenskyy said, referring to Russia's actions. "They destroyed everything."

The Russian Defense Ministry on Saturday first announced that its troops, along with Wagner mercenaries, have taken control of the flashpoint city...

toukokuu 22, 12:34 pm

Russian mercenaries behind slaughter of 500 in Mali village, UN report finds (Guardian)

Report implicates Wagner group fighters in Moura atrocity, including the torture and rape of civilians...

toukokuu 23, 3:28 am

The Black Sea Grain Initiative: When the United Nations Brokers Profits for Corporations, Bankers, and Oligarchs (Oakland Institute)

War and Theft: The Takeover of Ukraine’s Agricultural Land, exposes the financial interests and the dynamics at play leading to further concentration of land and finance.

The total amount of land controlled by oligarchs, corrupt individuals, and large agribusinesses is over nine million hectares — exceeding 28 percent of Ukraine’s arable land. The largest landholders are a mix of Ukrainian oligarchs and foreign interests — mostly European and North American as well as the sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia. Prominent US pension funds, foundations, and university endowments are invested through NCH Capital, a US-based private equity fund. Several agribusinesses, still largely controlled by oligarchs, have opened up to Western banks and investment funds — including prominent ones such as Kopernik, BNP, or Vanguard — who now control part of their shares. Most of the large landholders are substantially indebted to Western funds and institutions, notably the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the World Bank.

Western financing to Ukraine in recent years has been tied to a drastic structural adjustment program that has required austerity and privatization measures, including the creation of a land market for the sale of agricultural land. President Zelenskyy put the land reform into law in 2020 against the will of the vast majority of the population who feared it would exacerbate corruption and reinforce control by powerful interests in the agricultural sector. Findings of the report concur with these concerns. While large landholders are securing massive financing from Western financial institutions, Ukrainian farmers — essential for ensuring domestic food supply — receive virtually no support. With the land market in place, amidst high economic stress and war, this difference of treatment will lead to more land consolidation by large agribusinesses. The report also sounds the alarm that Ukraine’s crippling debt is being used as a leverage by the financial institutions to drive post-war reconstruction towards further privatization and liberalization reforms in several sectors, including agriculture.

The full report can be found here

toukokuu 23, 3:31 am

Mali, Ukraines, Syria...pattern is the same...

Amy Klobuchar {US Senator} @amyklobuchar | 12:32 AM · May 23, 2023:

Russian destruction of Bakhmut, Ukraine. NYT photo.
Photo Bakhmut ruins ( )

toukokuu 24, 3:04 am

DW News @dwnews | 1:36 AM · May 24, 2023:
An attack in Russia's Belgorod region, close to the border with Ukraine, appears to have caught the Kremlin off guard.
2:24 ( )

Anti-Putin Russians say they launched a cross-border attack from Ukraine. Here’s what we know
Rob Picheta and Nathan Hodge | May 24, 2023

toukokuu 24, 8:53 am

Mercenary Prigozhin warns Russia could face revolution unless elite gets serious about war
Guy Faulconbridge, Reuters | May 24, 2023

toukokuu 24, 9:00 am

>95 margd: contd.

Ukraine war: Belgorod incursion may stretch Russia's defences
Tom Balmforth and Anna Dabrowska, Reuters | May 24, 2023

...Though Kyiv has denied any role, the biggest cross-border raid from Ukraine since Russia invaded 15 months ago was almost certainly coordinated with Ukraine's armed forces as it prepares to attempt to recapture territory, the experts added.

"The Ukrainians are trying to pull the Russians in different directions to open up gaps. The Russians are forced to send reinforcements," said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)...

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 24, 12:30 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:56 AM · May 24, 2023:

I posted earlier that sea drones attacked a Russian reconnaissance ship. Russian ministry of defense confrimed this information.

Russia reported that all unmanned boats were destroyed, the ship continued to function.

However, some sources say that although two drones were destroyed, the third one managed to damage the ship.

Russian Black Sea Fleet probably won't feel safe in the Black Sea anymore.

0:13 ( )

cartoon :D

toukokuu 25, 1:53 am

Peace Policy (Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies)

This issue of Peace Policy covers various aspects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including civil resistance, international intervention, environmental consequences, and information warfare. The contributors provide historical context, current examples, and policy suggestions to shed light on the war’s complexities and potential avenues for supporting those affected by the war. Addressing environmental concerns alongside the humanitarian and geopolitical aspects, this issue seeks to understand the nature of civil resistance in Ukraine and its global impact...

toukokuu 25, 10:33 am

>98 margd: contd.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:39 AM · May 25, 2023:
I posted yesterday about a Russian Black Sea Fleet ship Ivan Khurs that was attacked by unmanned drones.

Russia claimed "the ship continues to carry out its functions" without mentioning its state.

It seems the third drone did manage to damage the ship?

0:15 ( )

Muokkaaja: toukokuu 25, 10:46 am

Quite a lot of diversity in responses to Ukrainian outreach to Africa: mostly not having it?
While individual Ukrainians' treatment of African students was regrettable at beginning of Russian invasion, I always thought strange that Africans did not more strongly support Ukrainian defense against imperialism. Never mind wheat...

Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa | 9:31 AM · May 25, 2023

Congratulations to African countries on Africa Day. 🇺🇦 has been and will continue to be a contributor to peace and development of the continent.
Today, this is evidenced by #GrainFromUkraine humanitarian program and the Peace Formula, which can restore world order and the power of the UN Charter. 🇺🇦 and Africa need each other more than ever!

toukokuu 26, 11:22 am

⚡President Zelenskyy has published a video showing the consequences of this morning's Russian missile attack on a medical facility in Dnipro.

So far, 15 people have been injured, and one person has died.

0:31 ( )

- @United24media | 5:18 AM · May 26, 2023

toukokuu 27, 9:36 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:27 AM · May 27, 2023:

Deputy head of Russian foreign affairs ministry named the conditions for stopping the war in Ukraine: refusing to enter EU and NATO, accepting the new "territorial realities" and making Russian a state language.

"Otherwise we will arm Belgorod's territorial guards!" - probably the next sentence in this statement.

Photo & (Ru?) text ( )

Defense of Ukraine @DefenceU | 2:27 AM · May 27, 2023

A priest of the russian Orthodox Church calls on russian soldiers to kill Ukrainians, espousing a racist theory about Ukrainians being nothing more than “damaged russians.”
Under Patriarch Kirill, this “church” has been an integral part of the criminal ruscist regime.

0:24 ( )

Russian election coming up in 2024. Hope Boris Nadezhdin survives to vote...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:58 AM · May 27, 2023:

For the first time on Russian TV, propagandists said that Putin and the country's leaders must resign and others need to be elected.

0:24 ( )

toukokuu 27, 11:30 am

Poland passes contentious bill to examine Russian influence
DW | 26 May 2023

The law, backed by the ruling Law and Justice party, is seen as targeting former Prime Minister Donald Tusk ahead of key elections next year. Critics say the measure is unconstitutional.

Polish lawmakers passed a bill on Friday to investigate Russian influence in the country, which the opposition says is a targeted attempt to influence elections next year.

The law will establish a commission to investigate alleged Russian influence during the period from 2007 to 2022...

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 1, 3:15 am

Negotiating with Putin may have to take priority over war crimes trial, says Macron (Guardian)

It may not be possible to send Vladimir Putin to face war crime charges at The Hague if he is the only person with whom the west has to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, Emmanuel Macron has said...

Not a new dilemma. Perhaps the most well known case in recent years is that of Joseph Kony, the leader of Uganda's brutal Lord's Resistance Army. After two decades of conflict and atrocities it reached a point where, after years of efforts by local religious and cultural leaders, meaningful peace negotiations were taking place under the auspices of neighbouring southern Sudan. Despite pleas from civil society, religious and cultural leaders, neighbouring governments, victims, survivors and affected local people, and even Kony's arch-enemy the government of Uganda, urging that peace was more important than retributive justice, the International Criminal Court refused to withdraw its war crimes indictments of Kony and his top commanders, and in 2008 the negotiations finally collapsed because of that issue. Worth noting that all the protagonists in that case, including Kony himself and the Ugandan government, were not suggesting impunity and were willing to pursue forms of restorative justice, but the western-dominated international community seems reluctant to explore anything other than retributive and punitive forms of justice.

AI: War crimes evidence erased by social media platforms (BBC)

Evidence of potential human rights abuses may be lost after being deleted by tech companies, the BBC has found. Platforms remove graphic videos, often using artificial intelligence - but footage that may help prosecutions can be taken down without being archived. Meta and YouTube say they aim to balance their duties to bear witness and protect users from harmful content. But Alan Rusbridger, who sits on Meta's Oversight Board, says the industry has been "overcautious" in its moderation. The platforms say they do have exemptions for graphic material when it is in the public interest - but when the BBC attempted to upload footage documenting attacks on civilians in Ukraine, it was swiftly deleted. Artificial intelligence (AI) can remove harmful and illegal content at scale. When it comes to moderating violent images from wars, however, machines lack the nuance to identify human rights violations. Human rights groups say there is an urgent need for social media companies to prevent this information from vanishing...

kesäkuu 1, 4:47 am

>105 John5918: Bashar al-Assad, Mohammed bin Salman, Vladimir Putin, et al... Not one more person should die because of these guys, but still, previous victims, deterrence call out for justice. Must be tough for world leaders to shake their hands again...

kesäkuu 1, 5:43 am

Some say photo shop--time will tll. Wonder if this in area of recent Ru smoke screen on bridge?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:24 AM · Jun 1, 2023:

Photos appeared that show cracks in the supports of Kerch bridge {Crimea-Russia}.

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 1, 5:46 am

>106 margd:

It's always difficult, but it seems victims only get a voice when they demand revenge (aka retributive or punitive justice), not when they demand restorative justice. The former may make some victims feel they have achieved a principle but rarely gives them anything concrete; the latter attempts to actually heal the damage which has been done and provide a better future for those affected. It's often not as clear cut as that, there are huge grey areas in both forms of justice, and there are some elements which will never be resolved satisfactorily whatever one does, but the general reluctance of the west and the international community to seriously explore restorative justice is unfortunate.

kesäkuu 1, 7:51 am

>108 John5918: There is interest in West of having Russia rebuild Ukraine -- I was just listening to discussion of seized yachts and legalities -- but I suspect there won't be enough left of Ru economy to do much given the level of destruction. Kind of like Germany after WW1 and WW2? Propensity to take over neighbours must be curbed, but Western investment and trade will be needed to rebuild Russia, never mind Ukraine. China will be all too eager to help, but that may not be helpful, either....

kesäkuu 1, 8:38 am

I've read that men in Donesk were pressed into service by Russia--the tip of the spear in some nasty fighting. Wonder if some became Russian partisans? Unless others join their cause, I can't imagine they will get far into Russia. But the road to Vladvostok is where the conscripts are coming from? Governors in those provinces bear ire of families, resentment toward Euros in Moscow?

Russian ‘Freedom Fighters’ Raid Belgorod – Again – Across Border From Ukraine
Kyiv Post | June 1, 2023

“Partisans” raided across the Ukrainian border into Russia for the second time in two weeks. The Kremlin said the incursion was wiped out, but fighters said they blew a lot of Russian stuff up...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:48 AM · Jun 1, 2023:
"Freedom for Russia Legion" states they are going into Russia again to "bring freedom, peace and calm".

"We're coming to liberate the whole Russia", they say.

"Russian Volunteer Corps" reported that they already entered the territory of Russian Federation.

Russian Telegram channels reported combat actions near the border - by Novaya Tavolzhanka and Shebekino.

Governor of Belgorod region denied that information but confirmed that civilians were evacuated.

0:32 ( )


Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:10 AM · Jun 1, 2023
Russia attacked Kyiv with Iskander rockets last night. 7 ballistic Iskander-M and 3 cruise missiles Iskander-K were shot down by air defense.

Fragments of the rockets killed three people: a 9-year-old girl*, her 34-year-old mom and a 33-year old woman. 12 more people were wounded.

A medical facility, kindergarten, residential buildings and cars were damaged.

Terrorist state continues terrorizing civilians.
Text Ua ( )

Oleksandra Matviichuk @avalaina | 6:24 AM · Jun 1, 2023:
head of the Center for Civil Liberties (Ukraine), Nobel Peace Prize 2022/ Democracy Defender Award of OSCE 2016

* Grandfather sits over the body of his dead 9-year-old granddaughter.

The girl ran with her mother to a shelter in Kyiv. It was at night, a few minutes after the beginning of the air alarm in the capital.

On June 1, the world celebrates Children's Day.

Photo Getty Images ( )

( )

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 2, 12:25 am

Brics ministers call for rebalancing of global order away from West (BBC)

A meeting of foreign ministers of the Brics group of nations in South Africa has called for a rebalancing of the global order away from Western nations. South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said the group's vision was to provide global leadership in a world fractured by geopolitical tension, inequality and global insecurity. Brics is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Allegations of Russian war crimes in Ukraine have clouded the talks... Brics countries have a combined population of more than 3.2 billion people, making up about 40% of the world's roughly 8 billion people... the gathering must "send out a strong message that the world is multipolar, that it is rebalancing and that old ways cannot address new situations". "At the heart of the problems we face is economic concentration that leaves too many nations at the mercy of too few"... Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira described the Brics as an "indispensable mechanism for building a multipolar world order that reflects the devices and needs of developing countries"...

This reflects the dilemma facing non-aligned and "developing" countries, mainly in the Global South. On the one hand they are appalled by the illegal invasion of Ukraine by its larger and more powerful neighbour - many of them have experienced similar atrocities at the hands of former colonial powers as well as the USA and former USSR. On the other hand, the continued global economic domination by "the west" is unsustainable and we are currently seeing the insecurity and instability which results from this "economic concentration that leaves too many nations at the mercy of too few". It's difficult to see what the solution might be, but a hardening of positions by two competing power blocs is unlikely to prove beneficial to anyone in the long term (except perhaps the global arms industry and short-term free market capitalism).

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 2, 3:33 am

>111 John5918: And Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will give a better outcome, you think, than the West TODAY with its feedback, self-correcting loops, however slow and halting? Frying pan, meet fire...

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 2, 3:54 am

>112 margd:

No, although from the viewpoint of much of the developing world they haven't benefited very much from the west. Most of the colonial powers were from the west, the west was on the wrong side in most of the liberation struggles from colonialism, the current world economic system favours western capitalists rather than developing nations, the western worldview dominates international thinking at the expense of African, Asian and Latin American cultures, the west is no less willing than Russia to invade countries that it has a problem with, and most western aid comes with conditions attached which are probably no more onerous than the conditions attached to Chinese aid. But the point is that as long as the world remains stuck in the mentality of two blocs competing for power, there will be no sustainable peace or justice. Neither west nor east has a monopoly on truth or wisdom. The vicious circle needs to be broken; a new mutually beneficial paradigm is needed. Utopian, maybe, but the current paradigm is just leading into greater problems.

kesäkuu 2, 4:25 am

"Russia will ultimately be the guarantor of peace and security for all nations in the world," Putin was told. He agreed.
0:35 ( )

- Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:51 AM · Jun 2, 2023

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 2, 7:03 am

Why Is the Russian Regime Ignoring the Moscow Drone Attacks?
Tatiana Stanovaya | 2 June 2023

...There are three main reasons for the (Russian) government’s passive reaction to the drone attacks:
Putin’s faith in people’s endurance,
the authorities’ fixation on demonstrating their “successes,” and
Russia’s objective lack of military preparedness to respond effectively to such attacks.

In the Russian system, the first person to raise the alarm gets the blame: it’s easier to hush everything up than to admit vulnerability. But the problem with this tactic is that it has its limits. People want to see strong leadership, but right now, that leadership is looking increasingly helpless and confused.

kesäkuu 2, 9:17 am

Putin Hiding Out After Panic ‘Behind the Scenes’ of Moscow Drone Attack
Allison Quinn | Updated May. 31, 2023

Russia’s Vladimir Putin is avoiding taking any trips out of the country because he no longer feels safe following repeated Ukrainian drone attacks and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, according to several new reports.

...There have also been allegations of a coup against him by the Russian mercenary group Wagner, and their chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

The drone strikes on Tuesday hit a wealthy Russian capital suburb which the Kremlin said were intercepted by air-defense systems.

According to The Moscow Times, which cited a crash-site list from the Russian government, the drones hit villages only a few kilometers from Novo-Ogaryovo, the site of the luxurious home where Putin is believed to spend much of his time.

One source told the publication that Putin was in the residence at the time of the attack and was woken by security officials...

kesäkuu 2, 12:00 pm

Europe’s energy crisis is Putin’s problem now
With Europe’s fuel prices returning to pre-war levels, Russia has lost its best leverage over the Continent, experts say.
Gabriel Gavin | June 1, 2023

...European wholesale natural gas prices have reached a two-year low, ending last week at €24.84 per megawatt hour, according to analytics firm ICIS...a major drop compared with April 2022, when gas price benchmarks hit the colossal €200 mark after Russia indefinitely slashed and then shut off much of its usual flows of gas to Europe in retaliation against economic sanctions.

..."Our storages are at very high levels, demand has been reduced significantly, and new infrastructure has been developed to support the diversification efforts," European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson told POLITICO. "We have managed to get rid of our dependence on Russian fossil fuels mainly by diversifying to reliable partners...What is clear is that we will not go back to the status quo with Russia as our main gas supplier. We need to protect our security of supply."

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 4, 4:09 am

A start?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:07 AM · Jun 3, 2023

Ukrainian Defense Minister @oleksiireznikov met with Li Shangfu, China's Defense Minister at IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore.
Photo shaking hands ( )


Interesting contrast:

US defense chief slams China over rejected military talks
2 June 2023
Lloyd Austin's remarks came after Beijing declined an official invitation for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of Asia's top defense summit.

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 4, 3:54 am


Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:16 AM · Jun 4, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

Russian propagandist has reached a disappointing (only for them) conclusion: “Russia now has no resources to establish control over Ukraine.”

Defeatism is seeping through the cracks on Russian TV?

0:21 ( )

FCGroningen1987 @FC_groningen87
I recall this guy being the "voice of reason" before. They probably only bring him in when it suits them of course. Just to test how domestic reactions would be to such a narrative.

Fischkopp 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇺🇦 @FischkoppNorth
I forgot the name of this dude, but he has the consistent role in these shows to represent a critical and pessimistic view. Its scripted and he does what he is paid for.

kesäkuu 4, 8:57 am

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent | 6:56 AM · Jun 4, 2023

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense published a video on June 4 saying that "plans love silence" and that "there will be no announcement about the beginning," presumably of the upcoming much-anticipated counteroffensive.

Video: Defense Ministry
0:35 ( )

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 8:23 AM · Jun 4, 2023

This OPSEC {operations security} measure is already throwing the Russians off kilter

Russian state TV and Yevgeny Prigozhin (with some contradictions) have argued that the counter-offensive has been underway for some time, even as the US calls Ukraine's actions "shaping operations"

kesäkuu 4, 11:12 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:03 AM · Jun 4, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. Founder of the Institute of the Future.

We are observing some successful offensive operations of the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and the "Freedom of Russia Legion" in Belgorod region of Russia. Their actions have a great strategic and demoralizing effect. Russia is forced to divert significant forces and attention in an effort to stop volunteer operations in its border areas.

Operations to demilitarize Russian military infrastructure and logistics facilities along the state border with the Russian Federation are also successful and will distract the enemy's attention.

It seems that this might be a good time to start a national liberation movement in the territory of Moldova occupied by the Russian Federation - in Transnistria.
This could create a great strategic advantage.

kesäkuu 4, 12:28 pm

Chris Vickery @VickerySec | 8:08 PM · Jun 3, 2023
Data breach hunter. InfoSec & Cybersecurity. Personal account.

Twitter is actively censoring tweets about civil unrest in St. Petersburg, Russia.
I was issued a “warning” for simply retweeting someone else’s mention of it.
This is dangerous. Twitter is providing aid and comfort to a wartime enemy of the United States of America.

Photo ( )
Twitter warning ( )
Twitter response to appeal ( )

...Multiple vests in the video display the letters P-R-I-D-E-X. That is the name of a Russian company which does operate in St. Petersburg and is headquartered in Moscow.
A few commenters have tried to cast doubt on the video’s legitimacy.
Thus far, there’s no reason to doubt it.

...Supreme Court Justice Robert Cooper Grier:
"And whether the hostile party be a foreign invader, or States organized in rebellion, it is none the less a war, although the declaration of it be 'unilateral.'"
There is no requirement of formal declaration from Congress. None.

...“A state of actual war may exist without any formal declaration of it by either party, and this is true of both a civil and a foreign war.”
-US Supreme Court
Prize Cases, 67 U.S. 635 (1862)

...Furthermore from Supreme Court Justice Cooper Grier:
“It is not the less a war on that account, for war may exist without a declaration on either side.… A declaration of war by one country only is not a mere challenge to be accepted or refused at pleasure by the other.”...

kesäkuu 4, 1:30 pm

>122 margd:

This chap sounds a bit hysterical. Whether or not the information is true, his post looks like inflammatory hyperbole.

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 4, 2:05 pm

Agreed. I was most interested in report of some unrest in St. Petersburg, and that Twitter might be censoring. Rest I included for context. (Russian election is coming up?)

kesäkuu 5, 11:47 pm

Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine Destroyed, Dozens of Towns Face Risk of Flooding as Reservoir Quickly Emptying Out Into Dnipro

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 6, 5:20 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 1:53 AM · Jun 6, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

The destruction of Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant can have negative consequences for Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant but currently the situation is under control - Ukrainian Energoatom.

"The water from Kakhovka reservoir is necessary to power turbine capacitors and safety systems of the ZNPP. Currently the station's cooling pond is full: as of 8:00 a.m., the water level is 16.6 meters, which is enough for the station's needs." - Energoatom reports.

Photo dam & Ua text ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:05 AM · Jun 6, 2023:

About 16,000 people are in "critical zone" in Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnieper river - head of Kherson regional military administration.
Evacuation trains will take people to safety from Kherson.

0:31 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:13 AM · Jun 6, 2023

Russian mines detonating at Dnieper bank by Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

0:06 ( )


Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:47 AM · Jun 6, 2023:

Statement by UkrHydroEnergo:
Russia blew up Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant in the early hours of 6th June.
Its engine room has been destroyed completely. The station cannot be restored.
By preliminary forecast, the reservoir is expected to run out within the next 4 days.
As of 9 am on 6th June the water level in Kakhovka reservoir is decreasing rapidly, the evacuation of population from potentially flooded regions has begun.
Uncontrolled decrease of water level is an additional threat for temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia*nuclear power plant. The water from Kakhovka reservoir is necessary so the plant receives power for turbine capacitors and safety systems of the ZNPP. Currently the station cooling pond is full. Ukrainian personnel at the plant is monitoring all indicators closely.
President of Ukraine has called a meeting of Council of National Security and Defense of Ukraine.
UkrHydroEnergo currently continues to analyze the situation, our experts are working to clarify the scale of destruction, speed and volume of water. Information will be updated.

0:44 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:06 AM · Jun 6, 2023:

Spokesperson for South Operational Command Natalia Humeniuk to Radio Svoboda:
🔹Not the whole dam of Kakhovka HPP was destroyed, but it was severely damaged. It was blown up from the inside;
🔹The site was severely damaged. The volume of destruction is high, so the water rise can be very high;
🔹It was not a rocket strike: "even by the type of damage, from the appearance of the dam itself, it is clear that the detonation took place from the inside";
🔹"They decided that this way they would be able to stop the counteroffensive of Ukrainian Forces... They are trying to increase the water surface area so that Ukrainian defense forces do not resort to forcing". She did not specify how this could influence the counteroffensive.
🔹But now the "line of firing positions" of the Russian military will move because "the water will do its job."
🔹This means that Kherson residents on the right bank of Dnipro river will have it "a little easier" with shelling.

Photos dam, spokesperson ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:12 AM · Jun 6, 2023:

Beavers were spotted in Kherson. There are a lot of beavers in that area, their habitat has been destroyed.
Animals are also victims of the ecological catastrophe Russia caused by blowing up Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

0:06 (

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:45 AM · Jun 6, 2023

A deer was rescued from the water in Antonivka village near Kherson.
Imagine how terrified the animals must be there.

📹: Kostiantyn Ryzhenko
0:06 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:09 AM · Jun 6, 2023:

Destroyed Kakhovka HPP went underwater.
Water level in Dnipro river continues to rise.
0:11 ( )

Ian Birrell @ianbirrell | 2:33 AM · Jun 6, 2023:
Foreign correspondent, columnist, campaigner, co-founder @africaexpress, citizen of the world and a bit more besides...

This Swedish simulation from last year shows the impact of breaching Nova Kakhovka dam
0:25 ( )

Water reserves in Crimean reservoirs are sufficient after dam breach -TASS
Reuters | June 6, 2023

MOSCOW, June 6 (Reuters) - Water reserves in Crimean reservoirs are sufficient after the breach at the Nova Kakhovka dam, Russian-state owned news agency TASS reported, citing emergency services.

The Crimean peninsula is dependent for fresh water on the North Crimean Canal, which brings water to Crimea from the Dnipro river, upriver of the Nova Kakhovka dam.

Ukraine previously blocked water supplies to Crimea after Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014, causing acute water shortages in the region. (Reporting by Reuters)

Ostap Yarysh @OstapYarysh | 12:51 AM · Jun 6, 2023:
Journalist and anchor at the Ukrainian service of @VOANews. Currently in DC.

For your understanding, the volume of water in the Nova Kakhovka reservoir is about equal to the Great Salt Lake in Utah. The dam has been blown up. Imagine the scale of damage and destruction to nearby villages and towns.

The Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam before and after the ruination.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:03 AM · Jun 6, 2023:

Central part of Kherson now.
As of 11 am, 885 people were evacuated from Kherson region - Ministry of Internal Affairs.

📹: Radio Svoboda
0:29 ( )

kesäkuu 6, 3:10 pm

As my military dad would say, Ukrainian Defense would be unprofessional if they haven't gamed out Russians blowing hole in reservoir--and they aren't (unprofessional). Swedish simulation "from last year" is indication that U's allies at least have been thinking about it for a while... Wonder what U response will be--attack Crimean canal and reservoir? To pressure R civilians at least to leave Crimean Peninsula?

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 8, 10:00 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:43 AM · Jun 8, 2023:

We appeal to international relief organizations to increase pressure on Russia for access to temporarily occupied territories of Kherson for humanitarian purposes.

A humanitarian catastrophe of unbelievable scale is taking place in temporarily occupied parts of Kherson region. Russians, who call the residents of these territories "our own people", do not conduct evacuation and prevent people from evacuating themselves.

As usual, Russia wants to conceal evidence of its crimes and does not allow volunteers, relief organizations or members of the international press access to flooded settlements.

As of now, there has been no input from the UN, ICRC and other relief organizations. Each day, each hour of delays means more deaths of people and animals.

Chief Rabbi Of Ukraine Moshe Azman @RabbiUkraine | 8:15 AM · Jun 8, 2023:

We are now in Kherson, we’re trying to evacuate people ... miraculously survived. Details later
1:00 ( )

kesäkuu 9, 12:59 pm

When trump was, wrongly, convinced that Hillary had stolen classified documents he amended a law from a misdemeanor to a felony in order to increase her sentence once she was convicted. Now he is subject to that very law adding 5 years to each charge. #TrumpIndicted

- Chris 🟧💙😷♋️🇺🇸🇵🇱🇩🇪🇺🇦🌻😷😷 @chrisapple1212 | 7:55 PM · Jun 8, 2023

As president, Trump approved a law increasing penalties for mishandling classified info. It could come back to bite him.
Tom Porter | Aug 10, 2022

...Trump signed the bill, which made changes to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, into law in January 2018.

It upgraded the seriousness of wrongly moving classified material, turning it from a misdemeanor into a felony — and increasing the maximum sentence to five years, up from one.

(Bradley P. Moss, a national security attorney) noted that it was passed after Trump's relentless attacks during the 2016 presidential campaign on Hillary Clinton, who was being investigated over whether she mishandled classified information...

kesäkuu 11, 5:58 pm

Visegrád 24 @visegrad24 | 11:24 AM · Jun 11, 2023:
Aggregating and curating news, politics, current affairs, history and culture from Central and Eastern Europe.🇨🇿🇭🇺🇵🇱🇸🇰

Ukraine just conducted 2 crucial sabotage actions far behind enemy lines.
A railway bridge was blown up in Yakymivka, stopping freight between Crimea and Zaporizhzhia. Melitopol
The only railway line leading to the Crimean bridge was also blown up in the Krimovsky district Crimea


Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 13, 5:40 am

>130 margd: A railway bridge was blown up in Yakymivka, stopping freight between Crimea and Zaporizhzhia. Melitopol
The only railway line leading to the Crimean bridge was also blown up in the Krimovsky district Crimea

Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 1:40 AM · Jun 13, 2023:
Born in Ukraine. American. @WindofChangeRG | Former Racecar Driver - Japanese SUPER GT

Russian military sources claim Ukrainian Armed Forces are approaching Tokmak, last major settlement 63km north of Melitopol, and Volnovakha, last major settlement 65km north of Mariupol. Squeeze of Berdyansk on the coast expected and Russian units will be encircled on both sides.
Map ( )

Once Tokmak and Volnovakha fall, the Russian military expects Ukrainian Armed Forces to make a rapid breakthrough all the way to Melitopol, Mariupol, and Berdyansk. If that happens, Russian forces in Berdyansk cannot be withdrawn because extraction by sea considered too risky.

May 26: I think Ukraine will first advance to the coast between Mariupol and Kherson to eliminate the Russian land bridge to Crimea. Then panic will ensue in the peninsula, and once most Russian civilians flee, they'll blow up the Kerch bridge, leading to mass surrender of Russian troops

Those in Mariupol can retreat to Rostov. Those in Melitopol can retreat to Crimea. Those in Berdyansk are SOL.

kesäkuu 14, 2:36 am

Ukraine offensive: What will it take for military push to succeed? (BBC)

"Don't call it a counter-offensive," say the Ukrainians. "This is our offensive, it's our chance to finally drive out the Russian army from our land." All right, but what will it take to actually succeed? First off, let's not get distracted by the recent hard-fought but tiny territorial gains Ukraine has been making as it retakes obscure, half-abandoned villages in the eastern Donetsk and south-eastern Zaporizhzhia regions... But in the big strategic picture, this is a sideshow. The area of Russian-held territory that matters most in this campaign is the south: the area between the city of Zaporizhzhia and the Sea of Azov. This is the so-called "land corridor" that connects Russia to illegally annexed Crimea... If Ukraine can split that in two and hold the ground it's retaken, then its offensive will have largely been successful. It would cut off Russia's troops in the west and make it hard to resupply their garrison in Crimea. It would not necessarily spell an end to the war - which some are now predicting could drag on for years - but it would put Ukraine in a strong bargaining position when the inevitable peace talks finally take place. But the Russians have looked at the map, quite some time ago, and reached the same conclusion... constructing what is now being called "the most formidable defensive fortifications in the world"...

kesäkuu 18, 1:34 am

Ukraine war must end, South African President Ramaphosa tells Putin (BBC)

The war in Ukraine must end, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa has told Russia's leader Vladimir Putin. Mr Ramaphosa's remarks came as he met Mr Putin in St Petersburg on Saturday as part of a peace mission with six other African countries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the delegation on Friday that he would not enter talks with Russia while they occupied Ukrainian land. Mr Putin told the African leaders Ukraine had always refused talks. At the meeting in St Petersburg, Mr Ramaphosa also called for both parties to return their prisoners of war, and said children removed by Russia should be returned home... Mr Ramaphosa also warned Mr Putin of the impacts of the war on Africa, and said it should be settled by diplomacy. "The war cannot go on forever. All wars have to be settled and come to an end at some stage," he said. "And we are here to communicate a very clear message that we would like this war to be ended"... The African delegation, made up of representatives from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda has been specifically designed for breadth and balance, with members from different parts of Africa with different views on the conflict. South Africa and Uganda are seen as leaning towards Russia, while Zambia and Comoros are closer to the West. Egypt, Senegal and Congo-Brazzaville have remained largely neutral. African countries have primarily seen the conflict a confrontation between Russia and the West...

kesäkuu 19, 12:46 am

Russian Orthodox prelate visits Rome as Pope’s peace envoy plans Moscow trip (Crux)

As the pontiff’s personal peace envoy for Ukraine is working towards a trip to Moscow, a high-ranking official in the Russian Orthodox Church visited Rome this week and met both Pope Francis and top Vatican diplomats. On Thursday, the Russian Orthodox Patriarchate of Moscow’s Department for External Church Relations announced that Metropolitan Anthony Sevryuk of Volokolamsk was making an official visit to Rome “with the blessing of His Holiness Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Rus.” As head of the Moscow Patriarchate’s external relations department, Sevryuk is the second-highest ranking official in the Russian Orthodox Church and is widely believed to reflect the attitude and approach of Patriarch Kirill, including his support of the war in Ukraine... The Vatican offered no statement on the meeting. The Moscow patriarchate said the two discussed “a number of issues on the current agenda of relations between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Church,” but offered no further details. On the same day, Sevryuk also met with representatives of the Community of Sant’Egidio, one of the so-called “new movements” in the Catholic Church, which is dedicated to social justice and global conflict negotiations...

kesäkuu 23, 2:07 pm

Ukraine attacks bridge between Kherson and Crimea, says Russia
Strike on supply route disrupts operations for Moscow’s troops battling Kyiv’s southern counteroffensive
Roman Olearchyk | 22 June 2023

...Chongar is one of several bridges that link Crimea to the Ukrainian mainland. The other two main roadways are on the peninsula’s western side, where several bridges crossing canals are located. Russia also uses two railway lines connecting Crimea to Kherson, one crossing wetlands on a bridge near Chongar.

Damaging Russia’s ability to move troops and military equipment via the bridge boosts Kyiv’s chances of liberating Kherson as well as southern parts of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions along the Azov Sea, analysts said. Severing the peninsula’s direct link to Russian territory through the occupied territory north of the Azov Sea is regarded as crucial for Kyiv’s chances of regaining the peninsula...

kesäkuu 23, 2:23 pm

US Senate Proposes to deem nuclear strike on Ukraine an assault on NATO

“We believe that nuclear weapons used in Ukraine will release radiation to large areas in Europe where NATO allies are located,” said Republican Lindsey Graham, who along with Democrat Richard Blumenthal registered the draft document.

Russian response:
Russia Ambassador Warns U.S. Resolution Pushes for Nuclear War Over Ukraine

Should such a war of mass destruction erupt, he warns, the U.S. would not be spared by its distance from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine now entering its 17th month.

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 23, 3:54 pm

Anton Gerashchenko | @Gerashchenko_en | 3:25 PM · Jun 23, 2023:

‼️ Urgent
A statement reportedly from the Council of Wagner PMC commanders

Prigozhin claims that Russian army performed a missile strike on a rear camp of Wagner's mercenaries and promises to "stop Shoigu"

An attempt at government coup in progress in Russia?

2:00 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:32 PM · Jun 23, 2023:

Russian military blogger Thirteenth:
"Okay, dears, don't panic, it had to happen sooner or later, and now it is taking place. I will inform you all about it soon. The main thing is to know that we will win".
Image of (Telgram?):

DW News @dwnews | 3:36 PM · Jun 23, 2023:
Wagner mercenary chief says Russia's military leaders misled Vladimir Putin into invading Ukraine by claiming Kyiv and NATO were planning to attack.

Wagner head Prigozhin says Russian army attacked his forces
Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said Russia's military leaders targeted his troops, after he made critical remarks. The Russian Defense Ministry denies the allegations.
New York Times World @nytimesworld | 3:47 PM · Jun 23, 2023:

Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the outspoken Russian mercenary tycoon, accused the Russian military of attacking his private forces on Friday, shortly after he described his country’s invasion of Ukraine as a “racket” perpetrated by a corrupt elite.
A drone image of the destruction in Bakhmut. Soldiers from Yevgeny V. Prigozhin’s Wagner Group proved key in capturing the city in May.

Wagner leader accuses the Russian military of attacking his mercenaries.
Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, who leads the private Wagner force, has been scathing of Russia’s military leadership for months, but in videos and tapes released on Friday he took his criticism to a new level.

kesäkuu 24, 3:49 am

Brian Klaas @brianklaas | 3:12 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Associate Professor in Global Politics @UCL . Author of “Corruptible." Writer @TheAtlantic. Host @PowrCorrupts.

It’s not like one of these sides in Russia are “the good guys.” They’re both awful. And the instability of a mutiny/coup for a major nuclear power with a vulnerable dictator is scary. At some point, Putin must fall, but this is a seriously dangerous time.

Christo Grozev @christogrozev | 3:09 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Investigative journalist

Putin, in recorded address, calls Prigozhin a traitor and says he has given instructions to MoD and other agencies to deal harshly with the coup organizers. Prigozhin will "answer not only before the law but before the people". I read that as a plan to kill, not capture.
Photo Putin ( )

Jim Sciutto @jimsciutto | 3:13 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
CNN Anchor & Chief Nat Sec Correspondent

Breaking: In address, Russian President Putin says those on a path of treason or armed rebellion will be punished: “Those who carry deliberately went on a path of treason, preparing an armed rebellion when you were preparing terrorist attacks, will be punished," Putin said. 1/

2/ Putin added that "any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood for us as a nation; it is a blow to Russia for our people and our actions to protect our homeland. Such a threat will face a severe response."

3/ This is quite an admission from Putin: "In Rostov, the work of civil and military administration is basically blocked," Putin said.

Dmitri @wartranslated | Last edited 3:34 AM · Jun 24, 2023

Visit: | Translating the war in Ukraine | DMs open for submissions | 🇪🇪 Estonian

❗️Full morning of 24 June address by Putin to the nation in regards to the military coup:

"I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement and security services, fighters and commanders currently fighting on their positions, repelling the enemy attacks, doing it heroically.

I spoke to the commanders in all directions last night. I appeal also to those who were deceptively pulled into the criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of an armed mutiny.

Russia today is leading the most difficult war for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-nazis and their handlers. Against us, the whole military, economical and information machines of the West are turned.

We fight for the lives and security of our people. For our sovereignty and independence. The right to remain Russia, a state with 1000 years of history.

It’s a battle where the fate of our people is decided requires uniting of all our forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. Everything else hat weakens us must be shoved to the side.

Our external enemies are using any arguments to undermine us from within. Thus, actions splitting our unity is a betrayal of our people, our combat brothers who fight now at the frontline. It’s a strike in the back of our country and our people.

Exactly this strike was dealt in 1917* when the country was in WW1, but its victory was stolen. Intrigues, and arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war.

Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers. But the beneficiaries were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts. We will not let this happen.

We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly internal betrayal. Extraordinary ambitions and personal interests led to treason. Treason of their own country and people and of the case that fighters of Wagner were dying for alongside our soldiers.

Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemivsk, towns and cities of the Donbas. They fought and were giving lives to Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organise the mutiny, pushing the country into anarchy and brother-killing, to a defeat, in the end, and capitulation.

Repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a strike against our nation, our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal.

Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will take an inevitable punishment.

They will answer to the law and our people. The Armed Forces and other departments were properly instructed. Extra anti-terrorist measures are now being implemented in Moscow, Moscow region, and a number of other regions.

Decisive actions will be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult. The operation of civilian and military control departments is practically blocked.

As a President of Russia and the Supreme Commander, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens.

Those who prepared the military mutiny, who raise weapons against combat brothers, have betrayed Russia, and will pay for this. And those who are being pulled into the crime, I’m asking to not make this crucial, tragic, unrepeatable mistake. Do the one right choice - stop participating in criminal actions.

I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger.

Video (no subtitles, see above for translation)
5:31 ( )

* Michael McFaul McFaul | 3:40 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
(former US ambassador to Russia)
That analogy casts Putin as Nicholas II and Prigozhin as Lenin --an odd image to be invoking.
Strange to me that Putin invoked 1917 in his speech today. Not a good analogy for him to be resurrecting.

albats @albats | 3:11 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Russia, Ph.D. in polsci Harvard U, author The State Within A State.KGB and Its Hold on Russia: Past, Present, and Future

Putin's hard words toward Prigozhin were aimed at his constituency, women 64+. The reality is that the army and FSB are avoiding direct confrontation. Everyone is sitting on the fences waiting

Quote Tweet
Михаил Касьянов @MKasyanov |
{Google translate: Chairman of the People's Freedom Party, PARNAS. Prime Minister of Russia in 2000-2004}

Если конфликт Пригожина с Минобороны перейдет в боевые столкновения, то путинская система власти разрушится быстро. Очевидно, в Кремле это понимают прекрасно, и бойцы Вагнера свободно катаются на танках по Ростову. Ждем действий ФСБ по аресту Пригожина, уголовное дело возбуждено

{Google translate: If Prigozhin's conflict with the Ministry of Defense turns into military clashes, then Putin's system of power will collapse quickly. Obviously, the Kremlin understands this perfectly, and Wagner's fighters freely ride tanks around Rostov. We are waiting for the actions of the FSB to arrest Prigozhin, a criminal case has been opened}

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 24, 4:21 am

Sledgehammer, Nukes. Geez-o-Pete!

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:50 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

Russian Telegram channels report that Wagner PMCs have entered Voronezh and are on the outskirts of Krasnodar and Volgograd. No one is resisting the militants.

Michael McFaul McFaul | 3:50 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
{Former US ambassador to Russia}
OK, so both sides are now all in.

Quote Tweet
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en · 7m
Wagner PMC Telegram channel:
"Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president"
Image Telegram ( )

Konstantin Sonin @k_sonin | 3:26 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Political economist, John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, @HarrisPolicy at UChicago.

Up until Putin's TV address, it was a coup not against Putin - but to force Putin to replace MoD/Army leadership. Now one thing to watch what other Russian politicians say. Already, 10th hour into the coup, the total disappearance of prime-minister Mishustin, the Moscow mayor Sobyanin, and other Putin's underlings is a bad sign for Putin. They fear him, but they wish him out. Even Kadyrov is silent - though now, after the Putin's address, there should be a rush to pronounce loyalty.

...I think {Prigozhin} (and his cause) has massive support in the regular army and FSB. But I think he started this not to remove Putin - he wanted to force Putin to replace the MoD/Army leadership. So, show force and negotiate.

kesäkuu 24, 4:48 am

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:33 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Belarus government jet EW-301PJ left Minsk at midnight and landed in Bodrum, Turkey, at 5 am.

It's unclear who was on board but Lukashenko and his sons are known to have used the jet often in the past.
Image map photo etc. ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:37 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
So-called Crimean "authorities" Aksenov and Razvozhayev left Crimea yesterday on an IL-76 military transport plane, flying from Belbek, - Crimean Telegram channels

The information has not been confirmed.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en
Russian media report that the bridge in the south of Moscow region over the Oka River is blocked. The strategic crossing was closed with dump trucks full of sand and sprinklers filled with water.
0.02 ( )

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 24, 7:27 am

Samuel Ramani (Oxford) @SamRamani2 | 7:16 AM · Jun 24, 2023

Voronezh, Lipetsk, Moscow
This is Prigozhin’s route
Map ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:21 AM · Jun 24, 2023
A hundred Kamaz trucks are ready to block the Moscow Ring Road.

Russians are sharing videos of what is happening on the outskirts of Moscow in social networks. For example, on one of the sections of the highway, there is a roadblock with an APC, about 10 Kamaz trucks and military personnel with automatic rifles.

Is Putin getting ready for a "hug" with Prigozhin?
0:07 ( )

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:18 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
By the way, residents of Rostov bring food and water to Wagner PMC mercenaries.

Does this indicate real ratings?
Or does it mean that whoever has the weapons has the power in Russia?

0:42 in Russian ( )

kesäkuu 24, 7:37 am

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock | 6:58 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
hyper-professional Russia guy and managing editor @meduza_en

Explosions, gunfire, and panic now reported in Rostov (from Russia Today, no less).
0:30 ( )

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 24, 9:05 am

Confirmation needed, but wow, if so!
(Putin needs a ride, not ammo?)

Molly Jong-fast (Vanity Fair special correspondent) Retweeted

Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 6:27 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Born in Ukraine. American. @WindofChangeRG | Former Racecar Driver - Japanese SUPER GT
Putin's plane reportedly attempted to enter Kazakhstan air space but was turned away. Kazakhstan President Tokayev commented: "The current events are Russia's internal affair."

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:47 AM · Jun 24, 2023:

Putin's presidential plane reportedly took off from Moscow to St. Petersburg.
At the same time, Peskov states that Putin is working in the Kremlin.
Image ( )

Jason Corcoran @jason_corcoran | 8:58 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Irish journalist/analyst covering Russia & CIS for 17 years. Ex-Bloomberg, Dow Jones, FT Group, Sunday Times. LFC

Flight prices out of Moscow have gone through the roof.
● Tickets to Armenia's capital, Yerevan, now cost 200,000 roubles ($2,300) - prices were 45,000 roubles this morning!!
Image ( )

Trenches are being dug, and sandbags are piled up in
South-West Moscow near the M2 linking the city with the south.
Photo ( )

kesäkuu 24, 7:51 am

Samuel Ramani @SamRamani2 | 7:06 AM · Jun 24, 2023:
Yevgeny Prigozhin's shell hunger warnings appear to have been a smokescreen for his coup plans

The 1st and 7th Assault Squads have clustered MANPADS and Javelins for at least two months
Gulagu uncovered this by reaching out to an associate of Prigozhin's security team

Quote Tweet
Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss | 5:44 AM · Jun 24, 2023
Replying to @michaeldweiss
"The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
Text in Russian ( )

kesäkuu 24, 9:08 am

George Conway @gtconway3d | 8:58 AM · Jun 24, 2023
If Putin can’t shut Prigozhin down quickly, it’s hard to see how Russia can hold on in Ukraine, no?

Quote Tweet
Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 @alexplitsas · 13m
Replying to @jonfranks @gtconway3d and @MarkHertling
It depends on how long this goes on. Prigozhin pulled out a sizable number of combat hardened troops. Putin’s using the National Guard inside Russia to defend. Morale is certainly down. Now it becomes a question of resupply, willingness to fight, & Ukraine seizing the initiative.

kesäkuu 24, 9:12 am

Someone on Instagram claims “They are distracting you from the BIDEN family. Wake up!”

kesäkuu 24, 9:18 am

Russian helicopters battle Wagner mercenaries rolling toward Moscow

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 24, 10:06 am

>146 2wonderY: Unbelievable... (Maybe a Russian stunt to detract from Trump woes? :D )

i can't imagine that either Prigozhin or Putin will survive this.
Turning point for Ukraine? Belarus? Some African countries, if Wagner crushed?
Too much to hope that Russia will emerge with more responsible leadership?

kesäkuu 24, 10:04 am

>148 margd:

While it may be of short term military benefit to Ukraine, a civil war within a nuclear-armed superpower cannot be considered good news for the world. A lot more people are going to die, and it increases global instability.

kesäkuu 24, 10:10 am

>148 margd: A Russian propagandist floated that insurrection had UK fingerprints on it, but suggestion didn't fly?

So far little violence. Fingers crossed.

Muokkaaja: kesäkuu 24, 10:48 am

Mutinies at various prisons and detention centers reported, one at the detention center Vodnik in Moscow where @vkaramurza* is held.

- Christo Grozev @christogrozev | 8:31 AM · Jun 24, 2023

* Vladimir Vladimirovich Kara-Murza is a Russian and British political activist, journalist, author, filmmaker and political prisoner. A protégé of Boris Nemtsov, he serves as vice-chairman of Open Russia, an NGO founded by Russian businessman and former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, which promotes civil society and democracy in Russia. (Wikipedia)

kesäkuu 24, 2:29 pm

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:26 PM · Jun 24, 2023
Hanna Maliar, Deputy Minister of Defense Of Ukraine, posted the following information on her Twitter account about the advance of Ukrainian troops:

The eastern group of troops today began an offensive in several directions simultaneously. In the direction of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Klishchiivka, Kurdiumivka. There is an advance in all directions.

In the Kupiansk, Lyman, and Mariinka directions, the enemy tried to advance but failed to do so.

In Avdiivka and Shakhtarsk directions, the enemy carried out air strikes and artillery fire.

Heavy fighting continues in all directions of the offensive. The enemy is on the defensive, making great efforts to stop our offensive. At the same time, the enemy suffers significant losses of personnel, weapons, and equipment. "

Glory to Ukrainian Defenders!
Tweet in Ukrainian ( )