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The Improbability Principle: Why…
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The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events… (vuoden 2014 painos)

– tekijä: David J. Hand (Tekijä)

JäseniäKirja-arvostelujaSuosituimmuussijaKeskimääräinen arvioMaininnat
211496,192 (3.6)2
"An eye-opening and engrossing look at rare moments, why they occur, and how they shape our world In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand unveils his groundbreaking argument that extraordinarily rare events are in fact commonplace. Weaving together fascinating new ways to think about chance, Hand highlights his "law of near enough," the "look elsewhere effect," and more, doing for probability what Newton's laws of motion did for mechanics. Through humorous and engaging tales of two-time lottery winners, gambling gone wrong, and bizarre coincidences that we can't quite fathom, Hand argues that extremely unlikely events must happen, and no mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why. Hand's investigation, grounded in statistics and brought to life with fascinating anecdotes, finally explains "unexplainable" events such as unexpectedly bumping into a friend in a foreign country and coming across an unfamiliar word twice in one day. Along the way, we learn what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, just how to win the lottery, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) more than once. As Hand makes clear, we can rest assured that we'll experience a "miracle" roughly once per month. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind chance moments, The Improbability Principle transforms how we think about business decisions, everyday encounters, serendipity, and luck"-- "An eye-opening and engrossing look at rare moments, why they occur, and how they shape our world"--… (lisätietoja)
Jäsen:spacekittens944
Teoksen nimi:The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day
Kirjailijat:David J. Hand (Tekijä)
Info:Scientific American / Farrar, Straus and Giroux (2014), 288 pages
Kokoelmat:Oma kirjasto
Arvio (tähdet):
Avainsanoja:to-read

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The Improbability Principle: Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day (tekijä: David J. Hand)

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» Katso myös 2 mainintaa

englanti (2)  italia (1)  hollanti (1)  Kaikki kielet (4)
näyttää 4/4
Langdradig boek. Alleen hoofdstuk "Life, the Universe and everything" over evolutie theorie en het ontstaan van het heelal, of meer specifiek onze aarde, zijn interessant. ( )
  gerrit-anne | Dec 17, 2019 |
Come è possibile che capitino tante coincidenze? È vero che c'è un ordine nascosto dietro quello che ci appare casuale? La risposta è negativa, e lo statistico David Hand lo spiega molto bene in questo libro. Hand racconta delle "leggi" che si applicano al nostro pensiero - la legge dell'inevitabilità che afferma che qualcosa deve accadere, la legge dei numeri davvero grandi che dice che se le possibilità sono enormi è facile trovare qualcosa, la legge della selezione che sceglie l'evento a posteriori - che ci fanno vedere coincidenze anche quanto non ci sono. I numerosi esempi che presenta sono di grande aiuto nello spiegare cosa succede, permettendo al lettore di assorbire i concetti: poi magari non se li ricorderà, ma almeno potrà ogni tanto fermarsi a pensare. La traduzione di Andrea Zucchetti è scorrevole, anche se sono rimasti alcuni refusi più tecnici che lessicali. La prefazione di Marco Malvaldi mi è risultata infine un poco incongrua: non certo per il contenuto, quanto per lo stile che è ovviamente malvaldiano. Se volevate prendere il libro a causa sua, forse è meglio che prima guardiate altre pagine (e poi probabilmente lo comprerete lo stesso...) ( )
  .mau. | Mar 10, 2019 |
The Improbability Principle by David Hand This is a an understandable explanation of basic probability principles like the Law of Large numbers, and the effects of small changes in assumptions upon probabilities. He reviews several odd and miraculous occurences and explains how although they are improbable, they are not impossible. Establishing and explaining these principles, he then tackles the improbabilities involved in life, the universe, and evolution. He explains how evolution works, with many small steps achieving a big change. He also tackles the Anthropic principle, which states this universe's laws are necessary for life and humanity to exist.

Overall, this is a good, accessible explanation of the topic of statistics and probabilities and how they interact with daily life. ( )
  jjvors | May 17, 2015 |
The titular principle, that extremely improbable events are commonplace, logically follows from math-based laws of what Hand dubs "inevitability", "truly large numbers", "selection", "the probability lever", and "near enough"; nothing supernatural is involved*. Many of the same points are made more concisely in Jordan Ellenberg's much broader book _How Not to Be Wrong_. Hand's book is hobbled and lengthened by being extremely formula- and equation-phobic; even the P(...) notation goes unmentioned. I guess it's aimed at rank beginners, though.
(* A good thing, since nothing supernatural exists, and any argumentation that uses it is "not so much an explanation as an evasion of the question" (p 203).)
  fpagan | Oct 28, 2014 |
näyttää 4/4
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» Lisää muita tekijöitä

Tekijän nimiRooliTekijän tyyppiKoskeeko teosta?Tila
David J. Handensisijainen tekijäkaikki painoksetcalculated
Malvaldi, MarcoToimittajamuu tekijäeräät painoksetvahvistettu
Sinun täytyy kirjautua sisään voidaksesi muokata Yhteistä tietoa
Katso lisäohjeita Common Knowledge -sivuilta (englanniksi).
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Englanninkielinen Wikipedia (1)

"An eye-opening and engrossing look at rare moments, why they occur, and how they shape our world In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand unveils his groundbreaking argument that extraordinarily rare events are in fact commonplace. Weaving together fascinating new ways to think about chance, Hand highlights his "law of near enough," the "look elsewhere effect," and more, doing for probability what Newton's laws of motion did for mechanics. Through humorous and engaging tales of two-time lottery winners, gambling gone wrong, and bizarre coincidences that we can't quite fathom, Hand argues that extremely unlikely events must happen, and no mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why. Hand's investigation, grounded in statistics and brought to life with fascinating anecdotes, finally explains "unexplainable" events such as unexpectedly bumping into a friend in a foreign country and coming across an unfamiliar word twice in one day. Along the way, we learn what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, just how to win the lottery, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) more than once. As Hand makes clear, we can rest assured that we'll experience a "miracle" roughly once per month. An irresistible adventure into the laws behind chance moments, The Improbability Principle transforms how we think about business decisions, everyday encounters, serendipity, and luck"-- "An eye-opening and engrossing look at rare moments, why they occur, and how they shape our world"--

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